| Real estate is a special commodity, which with production, subsistenceproperty and asset property. It is closely related to people’s lives. After thefounding of new China, through a comprehensive reorganization and strictmanagement, China’s real estate market is gradually formed. Especially in1998the Capitalization process of housing distribution is after, our countryreal estate market has been greatly prosperous. However, with the prosperityand development situation of China’s real estate market is a wide range ofissues,. In this regard, the state adopted a series of real estate controlpolicies. But funds outstanding for foreign exchange have lead to ourendogenous money supply increased, and regulation is not ideal. Under thisbackground, it is of great importance to analyze the impact of fundsoutstanding for foreign exchange on real estate market, the relation betweenfunds outstanding for foreign exchange and real estate market, andpromoting sustained development of Real Estate Market andmacro-economy.This paper, starting with an endogenous money supply point of view, andanalyses the relationship between funds outstanding for foreign exchange,money supply and real estate market, inferred funds outstanding for foreignexchange has some impact on the property. Then, based on the speculation,the article further use the graphic method of trade and select data of thefunds outstanding for foreign exchange, the broad money supply, the housingsales price index in July2005~June2010.Through above analysis, we drawthe following conclusions:(1) Theoretical study found that, in recent years, China’s basic moneysupply more and more dependent on funds outstanding for foreign exchange,the endogenous money supply increased. Other, model which consists of fivemarkets inferred that money market’s change have lead to other markets’prices (including real estate prices) rise. The graphic method of trade analysis that the funds outstanding for foreign exchange’change will lead todomestic non-traded goods (including real estate) price changes.(2) Empirical research shows that there are long-run equilibriumrelationship and Granger causality between the funds outstanding for foreignexchange and money supply, the money supply and real estate prices, thefunds outstanding for foreign exchange and real estate prices. The VARmodel and inspection certificate that there are interactions between fundsoutstanding for foreign exchange and its lagged variables, real estate pricesand its lagged variables. The two variables also are infected by the sameperiod. Another, IRF model show the influential factor of China’s fundsoutstanding for foreign exchange derive from itself and the real estate priceindex, which brings its own positive effect on the major impact, while the lattermainly for the impact of negative impact. Second, the real estate price indexis also affected by these two growth factors, which the impact of price indexfrom a strong positive effect to a negative effect, while the impact of fundsoutstanding for foreign exchange increased mainly as a positive influence. |
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