| People pay more attention on Aggregate Financing to the RealEconomy in recent years. The ratio of off-balance-sheet financing anddirect financing has been rising steadily, while the ratio of indirectfinancing has been declined steadily. Research of the effectiveness ofoff-balance-sheet financing and direct financing on china monetary policyis quite necessary for China, which is in the important transition period ofrapid but fragile economic growth.This thesis focuses on the effectiveness of off-balance-sheet financingand direct financing on china monetary policy. Data of off-balance-sheetfinancing and direct financing is the sum of entrusted loans, trust loans,undiscounted bankers’ acceptances, net financing of corporate bonds,equity financing on the domestic stock market by non-financial enterprisesfrom Aggregate Financing to the Real Economy published by thepeople’s Bank of China. The effectiveness of China’s monetary policy isreflected by the variables of ultimate goal of monetary policy--CPI, theintermediary variables of monetary policy transmission--RATE, M1andM2, increase in the amount of bank loan, CR. This study will use vectorautoregressive VAR, cointegration test, granger causality test, impulseresponse, variance decomposition and other measurement methods. From the results in this thesis, the size of off-balance-sheet financingand direct financing is largely affected by the intermediate variables ofmonetary policy, such as M1, M2and interest rates. But the influence ofoff-balance-sheet financing and direct financing on monetary policy is notsignificant. Compared between shadow banking and bank loans, exceptoff-balance-sheet financing and direct financing has larger effect on theinterest rates; effects on other parameters are almost at the same level.Based on the above results, here are some suggestions for regulatoryauthorities. Remain objective and rational attitude to the innovation offinancial products, such as shadow banking. Provide reasonable regulatoryenvironment, in order to further foster strengths and circumventweaknesses, make full use of the positive impact of off-balance-sheetfinancing and direct financing on economic growth, control the riskoff-balance-sheet financing and direct financing may exist, play animportant function of resource optimization configuration, such as solvingthe funding problems of small and medium-sized enterprises. |
