Dynamic Portfolio Model Based On The Analysis Of The Influencing Factors

A new trend in developing modern portfolio theory is to improve the transparency of risk allocation, this is also the core of the newly risk budgeting technology and which can be acted by factor model,one of the effective method. Unless wu have a thotongh theory about portflio investing decision whith factor model,the decision on portflio choice whith factor-model cannot be inplemented on the practice of portflio method. This paper based on the analysis of affcting factors, we study portfolio decision problem at different stages of the economic cycle, different market environment and under the futures price changes.So far, portfolios are mainly static portfolio model and dynamic portfolio model two kinds. Static portfolio model is once established the portfolio,we ignore it and passive accept the benefits of market fluctuations, so is also called passive portfolio model;while dynamic portfolio model is grasping the change of the market at any time, adjusting the portfolio according to different information reflected by the market, so as to achieve the aim of reducing risk and increase profitability.This article first embarks from the classical portfolio model, considering the long-term stock investment, investors often require adjustment of dynamic portfolio investment proportion due to the dynamic fluctuations of the stock market; On the premise of dynamic investment, considering that portflio investing model cannot only reduce the number of unkllown parameters,but also add the managers’ choosen space and the feasibility and scientificity of investing descion. This paper tries to introduce the factor model into the dynamic portfolio model, considering the dynamic changes of the securities market situation, at the same time, analyze the various factors that affect stock price changes. As the change of time, the influence degree of factors on the stock price is different, so we determined the influence degree is the quantity that change over time,or called random process,and the investment income is also a random process, on this basis, we established the dynamic portfolio based on the analysis of the influencing factors.In addition,this paper also discusses the strategies of long-term securities portfolio. For a long-term securities investment, its investment income is limited dynamically to the various factors affecting stock price fluctuations. In order to obtain satisfactory return, by the sensitivity analysis of different securities to the influencing factors, we predict the dynamic yields of different securities, set up dynamic investment proportion to different securities in a portfolio, and then establish a dynamic portfolio model based on the analysis of the influencing factors. Using this model, we discuss concretely how to dynamically adjust investment proportions in portfolios, according to the influencing factors in different investment environments and different investment periods to make the portfolio adapt to market changes better, so as to reduce investment risks and increase yield.