| Land use/land cover change involves many factors, such as society, nature, economy, ecology and environment. It has become a hot topic of geoscience. Since the open-door reform, China has entered a rapid development period. With rapid economic development, urbanization speeds up, resulting in dramatic land use/land cover changes. This phenomenon is more obvious in the eastern coastal areas of Zhejiang Province. Ningbo as an important economic center in Zhejiang province, experiences rapid land use/land cover changes. Characterizing its development trend is conducive to strengthening the cognitive of regional land use and further provides rational guide to land development and utilization.Cellular automata model can simulate complex spatial pattern changes through a series of transition rules. Predictability of Markov chain is relatively limited in solving spatial issues, since it focuses on the numerical changes in time. Combining these two approaches as a CA-Markov model, can simulate and predict land use/land cover changes more accurately.This paper analyzed the 6 districts of Ningbo city (Haishu District, Jiangdong District, Jiangbei District, Beilun District, Zhenhai District and Yinzhou District). Considering the availability of data, interpretation of long time series data based on 5 Landsat TM\ETM+ images (1991,1997,2002,2008 and 2013). Analyzing the long time series of land use/land cover change in Ningbo, then analyzing the effects of natural factors and social economic factors on land use, according to the multi criteria evaluation method to establish conversion rules of different land-use types, making the suitability map of all land-use types.On this basis, using CA-Markov model to simulate land use/land cover patterns in Ningbo in 2013. Then the simulation results are compared with the interpreted images of Ningbo in 2013 with Kappa coefficient. Results show that the model has high reliability and can predict land use/land cover patterns in Ningbo in 2018.The main conclusions are as follows:(1) Changes of land use/land cover in Ningbo (1991-2013):the area of built-up increased 5.4 times, the area of cultivated land decreased 35.17%, woodlands and water area decreased 3.76% and 21.82% respectively.(2) The simulation result of Ningbo land use in 2013 is proved to be relatively accurate (87.19% accuracy), which indicates that the CA-Markov model could be used to predict the land use changes in Ningbo.(3) The prediction results of land use in 2018 shows that the built-up area in 2018 continues to increase dramatically with the annual increase rate of 10%, which covers a total area of 27918.42 ha. The area of cultivated land continues to decline because a large amount is occupied by built-up land, which reduces 10926.90 ha and the reduced area accounts for 17.62% of the cultivated land in 2013. The area of woodland which is always the largest, decreases for the first time greatly, and the reduction of the area is greater than the decrease of cultivated land area, which reaches 15902.36 ha. Total water area decreases by 15.98%, which requires adequate attention.(4) Comparing the annual variation amplitude of each period, the prediction results shows that the amplitude of 2013-2018 will be higher than that for the each period of 1991-2013. It indicates that Ningbo will still go through rapid urbanization, which will bring about great changes in land use/land cover patterns.(5) The expansion of built-up areas in different districts varies significantly. Due to the rapid economic development in recent years in Yinzhou District and Beilun District area, the changes of built-up in these two areas are greatly huge, ranked the top two, respectively increasing 12668.95 ha and 9088.09 ha. The changes of built-up land of Zhenhai District and Jiangbei District are great, and the annual increase is more than 500 ha per year in average. As Jiangdong District and Haishu District are old town in Ningbo, the change of built-up is little, with net increases of 303.55 ha and 255.19 ha.Predicting land use/land cover change in Ningbo can have a more in-depth understanding of the status of regional land use, and can also provide reference for the future development of Ningbo and improving the land utilization rate. |
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