Impact Of Emergency On The Price Index And Simulation Of The Demand Changes Relevance

Over the past decade, as the global economic integration continues to progress, enterprises are facing increasingly fierce competition, in order to adapt to rapidly changing market quickly and effectively, many companies reconstruct their business processes using ideological of supply chain, responding to market quickly. However, the supply chain is not omnipotent, it is a complex system, when the body involved in the supply chain rises, the operation of the supply chain is more and more intricate, a sudden disaster may make the usual well-functioning Supply chain completely collapse. In recent years, there have been a lot of unexpected events, to the whole society, enterprises and individuals is a big loss. When the event occurs, how to better respond to emergencies is very important, therefore, we must have further in-depth understanding of the incident, a careful analysis of its impact on the node enterprise.At present, there is a sharp contrast between the academic increasingly lag to emergencies supply chain and supply chain business community faced Accidents. As for this reason, this article starts to research incidents based on control theory, chaos theory, supply chain theory, sum up the meaning, characteristics and classification of emergencies, and finally use Simulink simulation techniques to build a three-level Supply chain inventory model, based on this, analysis the impact of unexpected events on the price index and demand changes. This paper mainly from two aspects to study the impact of unexpected events on the supply chain node enterprise:one is after incident leads to changes in the price index, how it affects the node enterprise; two is after unexpected events lead to changes in demand, how it affects node enterprise. Specific results are as follows:In the analysis of emergency price index, this paper uses the ARIMA model to study the sudden events in 2008 the South snowstorm event of goods price effects. Analysis results show that much difference between actual value and the predicted value is positive during the snowstorm event occurs, indicating that the snowstorm events in China produced the positive impact of rising prices.In analyzing the impact of unexpected events on the changes in demand, create a three-level supply chain inventory model under Simulink simulation, analysis the impact of the supply chain level and change in advance of the parameters on the node enterprise after the incident, determine the stability of the supply chain system by calculating the maximum LE value. Eventually concluded that information is not shared in the conditions:(1) From retailer to the manufacturer, the LE value of amount of out of stock decreases, indicating that the node enterprises decreases uncertainty; (2) From retailer to the manufacturer, the inventory LE value decreases, indicating that the stability of the node enterprises increase; (3) It is not that the longer lead time is, the lower supply chain system stability is. Under the Information Sharing Condition:All information between supply chain nodes are all shared with each other, in this case, the uncertainty resulting from different parameters of supply chain systems will be improved.