A Study Of Price Fluctuation Of International Gold Market Based On The Demonetization Of Gold

The price of international gold market fluctuated violently in recent years. Affected by the international financial crisis, the gold price increased by 516.16% from 2001 to 2012, but decreased rapidly from 2012 to 2013. Such violent fluctuation caused the earnest attention of individual investors, enterprises and international institutions. The influence factors of gold price had become a hot topic in international financial market.Zhang BingNan said in 2011:Almost all financial assets are actually a receipt of loan, only the gold can fight against the credit risks. Studying the influence factors of gold price and predicting the changes in the future can make the gold a better hedging tool against inflation and help expanding the earnings of investment. Due to the dual attributes, the price forming mechanism of gold is complicated. We should consider not only about the supply-demand relationship, but also about the changes of global currency system, the global monetary policy, the factor of speculation and others.This paper uses the research method of combining theoretical analyze with empirical analyze and combining long-term study with short-term study. On the one hand, introducing the role and price of gold on the background of the changes in the world monetary system, analyzing the supply-demand situation of gold, discussing the world’s major gold market and their pricing rules. On the other hand, analyzing the main influence factors of international gold price, using the VAR model for empirical testing, finally finding out the different degrees of influence of the factors, distinguishing the long-term and short-term factors.This paper is structured as following:Chapter 1, introducing the research background, significance and method, putting forward the content framework; Chapter 2, making a brief review of the relevant researches both at home and abroad; Chapter 3, discussing the role and price of gold in different period; Chapter 4, analyzing the supply-demand situation of gold, discussing the world’s major gold market and their pricing rules; Chapter 5, analyzing the main influence factors of the price of international gold market; Chapter 6, using the VAR model for the empirical analysis; Chapter 7, conclusion and policy suggestion.