The Analysis Of The Risk Linkage Effect Of Chinese Real Estate Industry

This paper focuses on the research of the risk linkage effect between the real estate industries. The research analyzes the related literature at home and abroad, summarizes the formation of the real estate risk, characteristics and infection mechanisms of the risk, and comprehensively analyzes the infection channel and mechanism of the real estate risk between the financial system, macro economy and industries. On this basis, from the perspective of relevance, it verifies the risk linkage effect between Chinese real estate industries by using Copula function. The author selects the stock market data of ten listed real estate companies as an example and conducts an empirical analysis, through utilizing the changes of default tail correlation coefficient to study the risk linkage effect. In general, this paper is divided into three parts:Part one: Introduction and Literature ReviewIn this paper, the first and the second chapters mainly expound the research background and research significance of the risk in the real estate industry, and the paper’s research ideas, basic framework and innovations. The research analyzes the related literature of risk infection of real estate system.Part Two: Relevant measurement method and empirical researchThis is the important part of this paper, and it is composed of the third chapter,the fourth chapter and the fifth chapter. First, the third chapter and the fourth chapter introduce the internal mechanism of the emergence and infection of the real estate risk, briefly introduce the relevance measurement method, and emphatically introduces the basic definition of Copula function, common Copula function and the concept of the correlation coefficient on the basis of Copula function. The fifth chapter selects Chinese top 10 listed Real Estate Company to conduct an empirical analysis. Through comparing the changes of correlation coefficient before and after the crisis, it verifies the existence of the risk linkage effect.Part Three: Research conclusions and corresponding suggestionsIn this paper, the sixth chapter carries on summary and prospect. According to the theory analysis of the third chapter and the empirical results of the fourth chapter, it draws related conclusions and suggestions, and prospects for further research.