| With the rapid economic development in Henan Province, energy consumption is increased rapidly, which has caused serious environmental pollution and climate change. It becomes a bottleneck of constraining social and economic development. Electricity sector is the largest energy-consuming sector in Henan Province, the proportion of which in the total energy consumption is more than 42% Moreover, electricity is essential for people’s production and life. Therefore, it is necessary to study the energy-saving potential of the electricity sector and to assess their impacts on health, in order to promote the development of energy saving in Henan province.In this paper, firstly, we use the Industry Association Effect method to screen the leading industry sectors in Henan province, and select the power industry as the research object; then we use Scenario Analysis method to set four scenarios including the baseline scenario(BAU), renewable energy alternative scenarios(RES), natural gas alternative scenario(NGA) and integrated scenario(INT) based on the current situation analysis of electricity industry. Secondly, under different scenarios, we focus on its effects on the mitigating potential in Henan’s electricity industry. Thirdly, we analyze the influence of various air pollutants on human health by using Poisson Regression model based on the calculation of their emission concentration. and then the corresponding economic losses are evaluated. Finally, we give some policy proposals to save energy and mitigate air pollutants in Henan’s electricity industry based on the analysis results mentioned above.The results show that: firstly, we identify four leading industries including electricity, gas production and supply, metal smelting and rolling processing and metal products. The electricity sector is not only a pillar industry for economic development,but also the largest carbon emissions sector. Secondly, fossil energy demand in the electricity industry is still rising year by year in Henan province from 2010 to 2030. The promotion of renewable energy alternative and efficiency technologies can effectively reduce fossil energy demand in Henan’s electricity sector. Thirdly, Henan’s electricity sector has great potential for reducing emissions of air pollutants. And the adoption of renewable energy, natural gas and alternative energy-saving technologies are the effective measures to achieve the emission reduction potential in Henan Province. Compared with the baseline scenario, the CO2 emission reduction potential of renewable energy alternative scenario, natural gas alternative scenario and integrated scenario is 6.65%, 7.85% and 15.23%. the corresponding emission reduction potential of SO2 is 6.86%, 12.72% and 20.33%; NOx emission reduction potential is 6.78%, 10.85% and 18.36%; the emission reduction potential of PM10 is 6.76%, 10.44% and 17.91%; the PM2.5 emission reduction potential is 6.63%, 8.23% and 15.63%. Fourthly, SO2 and PM2.5 are the major pollutants causing health hazards and economic losses. Compared with the baseline scenario, it will reduce the number of 2049 cases of acute mortality, and 1.839 billion CNY economic losses under renewable energy alternative scenario by the year 2030. in the natural gas alternative scenario, 3187 cases of acute deaths, and 2.86 billion CNY economic losses can be avoided. in the integrated scenario the number of 5462 cases of acute mortality and 4.901 billion CNY economic losses can be reduced. Integrated scenario can effectively reduce acute deaths and economic losses caused by the air pollutants. Finally, to achieve energy saving in electricity sector of Henan, we should develop implementation plans from energy structure, low-carbon generation technologies. |
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