A Research Based On CA-Markov Modle Of Land Use/land Cover Change And Driving Factors Analysis In Wuxi

With the continuous develop of remote sensing technology and consummate of Arcgis spatial analysis function, the dynamic change of land use study have already became the important study field,and the study of land use change convert from the original amount of research to the pattern change of time and space research,in order to makes us preferably research the process and mechanism of land use change,in which realize sustainable development of land resource, a scientific perspective to study on it is very necrssary.Northeast of Chongqing is a typical poor mountainous areas, in recent years, due to rapid economic development, the pace of urbanization accelerate, a large number of cultivated land was occupied, and a large number of rural labor transfer to cities and towns from mountain area,the obvious land use change in mountain aera provides a area for sample scientific research.meanwhile. Take Wuxi as the research object, and on the basic of land use vector data in 2000, 2005, 2010 of study aera to predict and imitate the spatial pattern change of land use of the study area in 2015.First, by using the software of Arc GIS10.1, analysis the land use structure and mathematical statistics, then use the land use dynamic degree, information entropy, landscape pattern index,to study the quantity change of land use in research region; and use Frag Stats3.3 software, the author use landscape index pattern analysis Wuxi’s landscape index change and characteristics of changes in the process,by this, the author through a careful analysis of driving factors of the changes of land use in study area. On this basis, use CA-Markov model in IDRISI17.0 software, acquire the data of the three stage of the transfer matrix of land use, to predict the 2015 Wuxi land use pattern, finally puts forward the measures and suggestions to promote the sustainable development of land resource in study region.The purpose of this study is to analysis Wuxi’s current land use change and the three phase of land use discipline in 2000, 2005, 2010. to investigate the affecting factors of landscape evolution formation and change, in order to reach the purpose of research which is reasonable to simulate and pedict land use on 2015 in study area, as other researchers or local government land as the basis for the reasonable development.The main conclusions of this study are as follows:(1) Forest as the main land use types in Wuxi, In recent years, with the development of society and economic a new change in the landscape emerged:construction land, garden land, woodland,grassland water area arise cultivated land,unused land decrease In 2000-2005 all type of land utilization area change more significantly than 2005-2010.In this period the overall landscape present fagmentation trend. Human activities on land is more and more obvious, it is the main reason for this change.(2)2000-2005 land use dynamic degree change more severe than 2010.In 2000-2005 the dynamic of all types of land use present slow growth, but construction land and garden land dynamic value is larger than other types.(3) In 2005 to 2010, due to the impact of human activities, especially the residential land, traffic land, water conservancy project area increased, the information entropy of land use appeared increasing trend and the system has the trend to disorder.(4)Landscape pattern is the study period from 2005-2010 change significantly by analyzing the three landscape index.During2000-2010 garden landscape area and the number of plaques in research area were showing growth trend,but overall,garden landscape density was decreasing.Number of patches of land for construction is small,presengs a “V” change,but plaque area is in a rapid growth.Little change in the number of plaques waters,plaque area has risen A lot of unseded lang conversion to other landscape type it dramatically reduces the number.(5) Use DEM figure to extract the slope factor and classification DEM and slope, 2000, 2005 and 2010 land use types and classification of slope and DEM overlay analysis, the grassland, woodland, cultivated land and unused land, four kinds of land use types with the altitude increase the area percentage were increased first and then decreased with the distribution characteristics of the. Distribution of various land types in the different slope grade, which may be related to Wuxi County, the topography of the rugged complex.(6)Of the study area is the Wuxi county land use change social economic driving factors mainly have two one mainly includes population, savings deposits of urban and rural residents, the urbanization rate, fixed asset investment, total retail sales of social consumer goods, the proportion of total industrial output value; factor two, including the first industry of agricultural population, third industrial proportion.(7) That can be used in cellular automata in the data, then use the CA-MARKOV module to generate the transfer matrix, and then the simulation study on 2015 Wuxi county land use change. The study area of cultivated land and unused land remained decreased; and the forest and grassland, water area, land, construction land kept increasing. At the same time, this paper studies the 2010-2015 regional land use change mostly in the construction of the northern part of Wuxi.