The Stochastic Simulation Of The Ruin Probability For Insurance Companies

The risk analysis has become the most concerned problem of insurance industry, and it is the problem that insurance companies exist in actual operation. Ruin probability usually uses mathematical tools to build model, and do probability prediction according to several actual situation. For insurance companies, assets and liabilities are the important factors that affecting the long-term and stable operation of companies. Ruin probability is also very common in real life, such as stock, fund, management, service etc, all these have problems of risk probability. At present, the main research method of ruin probability is random simulation method, establishing ruin model and testing, then simulating the arrival rate, policy amount and amount of the claim of each insurance policy, finally analyzing the ruin probability of insurance companies.With the development of insurance industry, the study of ruin probability developed gradually. The ruin probability of insurance company is more uncertainty, complexity and dynamics. Based on above issues, combine with Monte Carlo this paper studies several models of stochastic process, and finishes the ruin probability random simulation of different parameter insurance products in every moment using Matlab. Via random simulation of different parameters, probability graph of classical model and improved model are drawn respectively, and the conclusion that improved model is more stable in actual operation. This paper mainly considers the problems that insurance companies encountered in actual operation, and carry on the theoretical study of several risk models. Finally, in order to combine with the actual situation, this paper random simulates true value using Monte Carlo technique, via analyzing each parameter of model, some general rules of ruin probability are proposed for insurance companies to reduce unnecessary risks and improve the surplus in actual operation.