Spatial Econometric Analysis Of Economic Growth Convergence Of Jiangsu Province Based On The County-Level Panel Data

Economic growth convergence measurement has always been a hot topic in the economics. Reviewing the studies about regional economic convergence measurement, there are still many problems to be further deepened. Firstly, existing literature about economic growth convergence mainly concentrated in the regional economic convergence among provinces or features such as level. Studies which treated the county level as analysis unit were very few, this remains to be further refined, for making the study more realistic. Secondly, most studies about convergence all focused on regional economic convergence, while the study of factors affecting economic growth convergence has not yet formed a deep theoretical discussion and the complete logical framework. Finally, existing researches were under the average level of economic growth convergence, failed to investigate the dynamic changes process about the economic growth convergence.According to the above problems, basing on the theory of neo-classical economic growth theory and treating the county level as analysis unit, this paper study the economic growth convergence in Jiangsu province. It uses spatial econometric method to analyze economic convergence in Jiangsu province. Then according to the empirical analysis results and the actual condition, the paper delves into the important factors that affect economic growth convergence of Jiangsu Province based on the county-level panel data. On this basis, the paper introduces quantile regression method, investigated under different levels of economic growth,the dynamic changes process about the economic growth convergence of Jiangsu Province.The main research findings including:(1)Whether considering spatial correlation, there is clear a convergence. And the spatial correlation has significantly narrowed the economic gap among the counties, and inhibited the economic growth of diversification. (2)For β convergence, after considering the spatial correlation, there is absolute β convergence and conditional β convergence for counties, and the convergence speed of them are both improved. From the empirical results of the control variables which represent the characteristics of economic growth in conditiona β convergence model, physical capital investment and the second industry play strong positive roles while human capital investment and the third industry play negative roles on the county economy growth, market openness and openness have no obvious effect. Under different quantile level investigating the convergence of economic growth, in low and high level, the economic growth shows the convergence trend, while under the middle level, the economic growth is divergent. At any level, the second industry always plays a positive role, while the third industry, human capital investment and market openness play negative roles. At low level, physical capital investment plays a positive role and openness plays a negative role, while at higher levels, the opposite is true. (3) For club convergence, although central does not exist any spatial correlation, there is club convergence; after considering the spatial correlation, there is club convergence of southern and northern, while their convergence speed have no obvious change.