The Foreign Policy Implications Of China’s Growing Dependency On Middle Eastern Energy Resources

China’s national power and capabilities are growing along with its GDP and technological advances. This thesis examines the rising influence of China in the Middle East chiefly through the perspective of power transition theory. It also relies on geopolitical theory and liberal institutionalism to formulate a set of geopolitical implications and policy recommendations for the relevant actors in the Middle East. After establishing the reasons for China’s irreversible engagement with the Middle East and explaining the indicators of China’s growing influence, the thesis applies the insights of the above-mentioned theories to produce the policy recommendations. The research questions associated with the thesis are:Can it be stated that China’s engagement and influence is rising in the Middle East? What are the implications of this phenomenon from a power transition perspective? What would be the policy recommendations for the relevant actors? The main argument of the thesis is that, the above-mentioned power transition can be harnessed to yield all round benefits if the rising engagement of China takes place in tandem to the strengthening of regional international institutions and regimes in the Middle East.The thesis starts out by examining the changing energy landscape, which forms an integral part of the background to China’s engagement in the Middle East:China’s economic growth engendersincreased levels of energy consumption. China, while abundant in coal resources, is reliant on ever-growing volumes of imports to meet its oil and gas needs. Not only continued economic growth and modernization, but also indirectly China’s social stability hinges on the security of its energy supply. A significant portion of China’s energy imports is sourced from the Middle East. China’s Middle Eastern energy supply security involves not only long-term contracts but also entails the preservation of critical infrastructure and the sea lanes of communication. All this requires the preservation of a modicum of regional stability. In this way, China has become linked to the Middle East in a fundamental way. The next chapter of the thesis examines the changing Middle East policies of the USA and China. The US has been the single most influential actor in the region in the post-Cold War era, and it has used its power to achieve its foreign policy goals through means including the use of force at times. However, the constraints imposed by public opinion and the financial crisis, the tight oil and shale gas revolution set in motion in the US and the Obama Administration’s ’pivot’ to Asia policy are reshaping the US role in the region.On the other hand, China is becoming progressively more influential in the region whether measured in terms of energy, economy, trade, investment or albeit tentatively diplomacy. The growing presence of China in the region has the potential to redefine regional power dynamics. The next chapter ponders upon the effects ranging from energy and economics to geopolitical power balances. Strong demand from China will offset any losses for the energy-producing countries in the Middle East resulting from the tight oil and shale gas revolution in the US. It will contribute further to the eastward shift in global economics and geopolitics. The investment activities of the Chinese companies and growing trade between China and the Middle East, will present new opportunities to countries of the region for infrastructure development and modernization. China’s growing presence will serve as a new check against regional hegemonic aspirations. Finally, the China’s emergence in the Middle East as a great power has the potential to yield all-around benefits if the US and China are able to agree on a rule-based, open, participatory and relatively liberal regional order.The thesis ends with a chapter that proposes a set of policy recommendations for the relevant actors.