The Combination Forecasting Model Research On Hebei Province Public Expenditure Budgeting

In our country, the public budget as public financial management tool, in the government allocation of resources plays a key role, because the scope of public budget limits the scope of government activities, so it has become the important tool of political decision making. Procedures and methods of budget, public policy decisions scientific transparency and openness, but also reflects the extent of civilization and democracy of politics. At present, many problems still exist and below the provincial government budgeting process. The basic viewpoint of this paper is that if government budgeting procedures and proper methods, especially the defects of expenditures budget management system make up, the government by administration performance budget will be increased, the people from government services can also enjoy a higher level of welfare.Study on the method of public financial expenditure budget of Hebei province is an important direction of the present financial reform in Hebei province. As a part of the national fiscal expenditure of Hebei Province, an important guarantee of public expenditure or the provincial government to exercise its functions of public finance. Therefore, establishing a scientific and reasonable public expenditure budgeting method is an important work. As a result of local fiscal expenditure is influenc ed by many factors, and the existing prediction methods is not scientific and perfect, therefore, it is significant to study its budgeting method.In this paper, by analyzing the current status of Hebei province public finance expenditure of budgeting, the paper focuses on the research of budgeting method, the time series model, regression prediction and GM(1,1) three kinds of combination forecasting model to predict the public finance expenditure of Hebei Province, Hebei province provides wizards improvement for the public finance expenditure budgeting method. In this paper, the first part is the first chapter introduces the research background, research status, purpose and significance and in recent years at home and abroad; the second part is the second chapter introduces the related concepts and the current domestic and foreign common budgeting method; the third part of the third chapter analyzes the Hebei province budget status from the aspects of preparation time, planning contents and compiling methods; fourth part of the fourth and fifth chapter, mainly the establishment of combination forecasting model and its application in Hebei province public finance expenditure budget; the fifth part is the sixth and the seventh chapter, in order to put forward countermeasures and suggesti ons t o i mprove t he publi c expendit ur e budget of Hebei Provi nce, and put for ward t he prospect s for fut ur e r esear ch.