The Analysis And Model Based On China’s House Income Ratio

China’s rapid growth in house prices, the increase is too large, increasing the degree of the real estate bubble, far beyond the residents can afford. Housing problem is to touch people’s livelihood stiff problems. Housing availability and whether house prices matching China’s urban residents have become the focus of government, academia, and the people concerned. In recent years, government departments issued a series of policies and measures to curb excessive price increases, efforts to make housing prices and real disposable income of residents matched to meet the housing needs of residents. Research on housing affordability, once, on the other hand, by domestic scholars to high. Domestic scholars’researches are from the housing price income ratio index as indicators of housing affordability rationality, reasonable housing price income ratio range, housing price income ratio,to housing price income ratio present trend prediction. Seeing housing price income ratio as a benchmark, most scholars make studies on the matchment of housing price and income, as well as the rationality of housing prices. However, the research based on the housing price income ratio as a measure of housing affordability, relative to the international, domestic scholars’is still at a preliminary stage, has not yet mature. Therefore, this article will refer to the extensive literature, on the basis of the basic characteristics of domestic housing price income ratio, the current situation of housing price income ratio analysis and further research studies on the housing price income ratio model, so as to provide reference for government regulation of various policies.This paper first introduces the basic features of housing price income ratio. And then analyze the status quo and model of China’s provinces and cities housing price income ratio, from the perspective of qualitative and quantitative, based on China’s 30 provinces and cities and the years from 2006 to 2011, using the data of various provinces and cities across the country. Thesis research mainly in three areas:one, on the basis of refer to a large number of documents, on China’s housing price income ratio, summarizedthe basic characteristics of finishing; two, respectively from the Angle of horizontal and vertical analysis of housing price income ratio and the present situation of housing price income ratio directly influencing factors; three, using the model to forcast the whole and the representative provinces and cities’housing price income ratio, and panal data model is set up from 2006 to 2011 of the nation’s housing price income ratio influence factors in comprehensive analysis in an all-around way. Related to the following conclusions:1. Horizontal Angle analysis of housing price income ratio, found that Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin and other places of housing price income ratio is much higher than those of the other provinces and cities housing price income ratio, and the interval is more than reasonable housing price to income ratio of upper limit;2. Longitudinal Angle analysis of housing price income ratio, found that the level of housing price income ratio was high, exceeding the maximum limit of housing price to income ratio reasonable interval, and the rising trend of fluctuations; Beijing’s housing price income ratio is far more than the reasonal range limit; Anhui and Xinjiang’s housing price income ratio is within a reasonable range, but is with a rising trend of fluctuation;3. Horizontal Angle analysis found that housing price income ratio directly affect factors of unit area housing market prices far higher than the per capita disposable income is the main factor which high housing price income ratio. Housing price income ratio higher smaller in worth of scale;4.Longitudinal Angle analysis found that housing price to income ratio directly affect factors in general and three representative cities and provinces of the nation’s housing market average price per unit area, per capita disposable income all showed a trend of rising, the household scale showed a trend of declind; the national housing cover both area down after rising first, Beijing and the housing of Anhui area showed a trend of decline, the housing cover both area of Xinjiang showed a trend of rose slightly;5. To the national level of housing price income ratio analysis found that a grey prediction model is set up across the country, Anhui, Xinjiang’s housing price income ratio showed a trend of rising, Beijing’s housing price income ratio showed a trend of declining slightly;6. Through panal data analysis and investigation from 2006 to 2011, the housing price income ratio influence factors and per capita disposable income and negative correlation between the household scale, housing price income ratio and average price per unit area of housing price income ratio positive correction. Beijing, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Chongqing and northeast in the coastal provinces and cities region. Housing price income ratio over time.