Based On The Researchon Steel Industry Stock Yield Of Economic Cycle

Thirty years of reform and opening-up policy, our economy has achieved great development, and enterprises’strength has been significantly improved. With the development of China’s socialist market economy and the mature improvement of capital market, the number of listed companies is growing quickly, more and more people enter into the stock market. Many countries and industries suffered losses in the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, especially in cyclical industries that closely related to the economic cycle, such as steel, shipping, real estate and other sectors. Because of the Global Financial Crisis, these industries’product backlog, production decline, the industries’outlook is not optimistic, and the stock fell sharply. How to grasp the fluctuations of economic cycle, and reasonable forecast the volatility cycle and demarcation point of macroeconomic, then accurate assessment stock price, it has very important implications for both investors and managers when they make decisions, simultaneously, it has far-reaching implications for the development of cyclical industries and the national economy. The steel industry is a typical cyclical industry, and is an important foundation of our national economy. Select the steel industry as the object of study, it has strong representation. Based on the above reasons, the paper selects the steel industry as a specific object of this study.First, according to China’s 1992-2014 macroeconomic data which I collected and sorted, and the trends and characteristics of these data, this period can be divided into three economic cycles; Secondly, the paper describes the current development of China’s steel industry, explores it’s trend and our macroeconomics’coincidence using correlation analysis. Lastly, select Shanghai Stock Exchange steel plate stock as represented, collate and analyze these data, analysis the fluctuations in stock returns with the associated data analysis software and simple regression mode, combined with our characteristics of each stage of the economic cycle. Specific arrangements of this paper are as follows:The first part is the introduction. Focused describe the background and significance, and expound domestic and foreign research achievements of the economic cycle and stock returns, then summarizes the research ideas.The second part is dividing the economic cycle. This chapter detailed definite the economic cycle, economic cycle division mode and then divides intervals based on this research paper.The third part is the correlation analysis of the economic cycle and the steel industry. Analyzed the current situation of the domestic steel industry with data, this part explore the relationship between the steel industry as a cyclical industry and the domestic economy. Finally, explore the yield performance of the steel industry in each stage of the economic cycle.The fourth part is volatility steel industry research. Based on the previous three parts, test the relevant data and conduct the empirical study, use the GARCH model which is build by Eviews software, to study stock returns fluctuations in the steel industry, and finally, present relevant recommendations combined with empirical results.The last part is conclusion. This chapter concludes the basis of this article and shortcomings.