The Status And Quantitative Prediction Of Silver Resources In The World And China

The mineral resources are the important material basis for the development ofnational and regional economy. The policy of state monopoly for the purchase andmarketing of silver in our country were abolished in2000, which resulted in openmarket for silver, In recent years the rapid development of our country’s economy ledto the great demand of silver. There is a very important question that the silverresource in China can afford the economic growth or not. Therefore, it is importantand necessary to correctly realize the silver resource in the world and China underglobalization, and scientifically model the supply and demand tendency of silver.According to the characteristics and predication of the silver demand, propercountermeasures and suggestions could be proposed for sustainable development inour country, which has a theoretical and practical significance.In this thesis, a lot of materials and data were collected and systemized. Theauthor summarized the global silver resource pattern and the utilization status of silverresource in China. Based on historical silver consumption, auto-regressive integratedmoving average model (ARIMA) and gray system model were compared for thesilver quantitative demand in China. ARIMA model and scene analysis method wereused for the silver in each consumption sections of global manufacturing industry.Several suggestions for the development of silver resources in China were alsopropsed in this thesis.The main conclusions were as the follows.(1) The global silver resources arerich, and the reserves are concentrated, and the supply and demand are balance. Silverresources are rich in China, but paragenetic minerals and associated minerals are notconcentrated. Resources demand exceeds supply and it depends on imports.(2)Compared ARIMA(p, d,q) and GM（1,1）model for silver prediction, it showed thatGM(1,1) model’s accuracy is better than ARIMA’s, and GM(1,1) is suit for few datawith the silver demand in China.(3) According to the results of GM (1,1), the demandof silver on manufacturing in our country still has a tendency to rise in the future;Prediction results of the global silver demand for manufacturing section showed thatthe photovoltaic industry in the future will gradually become the world’s largest silver consumption field. Under the influence of digital products, the silver’s application onphotography will gradually decline and even disappear in the end.