The Research On SMES Loan Risk Of Commercial Banks In China

As one of the most important pillar of China economic development, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have been the main force for creating the majority of employment. During the decades of China’s reform and opening up, SMEs play an essential role and they become an important partner and assistant of large enterprises. With the deepening of economic marketization, SMEs face challenges of RMB appreciation and increasing of labor and raw material cost. Especially since the beginning of2013, China’s real economy becomes serious and economic growth rate slows down. In this case, SMEs face surviving pressure and its development needs transit from low-cost-driven model to innovation-driven model. The largest difficulty of transition is financing. China’s commercial bank plays an important role in providing a variety of financial services to SMEs. Based on its own advantage, Commercial banks need to gradually establish SMEs credit rating system, introduce corresponding guarantee mechanism, and establish good credit environment as well as credit relationship. At the same time, SMEs need to strengthen their management level, enrich capital structure, construct perfect financial system and enhance the economic strength as well as ability to prevent market risk. In terms of national level, SMEs will play an irreplaceable role on China’s economic growth for a long period. Therefore, the State needs to provide more services for further development of SMEs.Based on the present situation of credit management and credit theories, this thesis identifies credit risk characteristics of sample of150SMEs and summarizes difficulties of commercial bank:loans to SMEs. By using Logistic statistical regression to analyze SMEs default probability, it puts forward constructive policy suggestions. The main innovation of this thesis is to utilize Logistic model for quantitative analysis of SMEs credit default risk. Based on related theories and empirical analysis, this thesis provides a practical implementing scheme for commercial banks.