| Since the implementation of the urban housing system reform in1998, China’s real estate market is developing rapidly, which has become a pillar industry in many cities. At the same time, the land transfer income and property taxes for the local government of the city construction provides substantial funds, which formed the local finance patterns that dependent on land related revenue, namely the land finance. Since2007, and the land transfer income and tax accounting for the local fiscal revenue related to the real estate market is rising quickly.In2013, the national real estate tax revenue and land leasing income both showing a substantial growth, real estate tax revenue for the first time in more than2000billion yuan, land leasing revenue exceeded4000billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of over four, accounted for60%of the local fiscal revenue.The real estate market in the development process and the growth of macro economy cycle fluctuation is similar, which also can produce periodic fluctuation. When the prosperity of the real estate market. As long industry chain, the real estate industry will greatly promote the development of local economy, and drives the rapid growth of local fiscal revenue. On the contrary, when the real estate market growth is on the decline, real estate prices, the real estate market slump, also caused the local fiscal revenue decline. The common problems in our country are relatively high cost of financing, many local government financing platform, mainly rely on the land finance maintain repayment ability. The National Audit Office data show, in the municipal government,which suffered audit investigation, the commitment to the land income to debt service account for81%. So when some city appeared land leasing revenue situation, local finance will face the risk of insolvency. The first half of2014, directly related to real estate transactions in the real estate business tax and enterprise income tax, deed tax in the local financial income contribution dropped significantly, reflecting the real estate market has entered a period of adjustment, the real estate market fluctuations in the decline stage, thereby reducing the local fiscal revenue.Based on the research of the related theory of real estate and local fiscal revenue, we use25city nationwide data to establish the panel error correction model to study effects of fluctuations in the real estate market to the local finance income; further more, we divide25city into three plates:first line cities, second-line cities and three line cities, respectively, the establishment of error correction model of regional difference, local fiscal revenue dependence on the real estate industry is studied, the empirical analysis conclusion:1) In25City panel error correction model. Housing and housing sales area to the local finance income of long-term and short-term elasticity elasticity are positive, means that, changes direction change of the local financial revenue and prices and sales area of the same, so the prosperity of the real estate market will directly lead to the real estate tax and land leasing increases, so that the local fiscal revenue, rose. But the real estate market decline would lead to a reduction of local fiscal revenue, so that the land leasing debt crisis appeared to gold as collateral to raise money for the local government of the city. But when the short-term fluctuations in prices deviate from the long-term equilibrium state, the system will take efforts to adjust the faster the non-equilibrium state back to the equilibrium state. So when the real estate market short-term fluctuations, as long as the government promptly take appropriate regulatory measures, can return to the equilibrium state that after adjustment.2) From three regional city panel error correction model results, two or three line city house prices have great. effect on the strength of local fiscal revenue, first-tier cities smaller. The fluctuations of the real estate market influence on strength and city development situation of local fiscal revenue, two or three line city house prices have greater roles in boosting the local fiscal revenue. On the contrary, when the fluctuations of the real estate market decline, the two or three line of the city of local finance income is greater than the impact first-tier cities.3). first-tier cities commercial housing sales area and the local finance income into reverse change. First-tier cities real estate market development for the local fiscal revenue contribution comes mainly from the high prices caused by the commercial housing sales prices, increase brings to tax increases and the high price of the land revenue, rather than commercial housing sales increase the driving of local fiscal revenue growth mode. The two or three line of the city commercial housing sales area of increase or decrease with the same direction as the change of the local finance income increase and decrease. This first-tier cities and the differences between the two or three line of the city regional characteristics, for different regions of our country government difference, it has important reference value to adopt different control measures.The innovation of this paper lies in:Firstly, the25city in the country is divided into one or two, three line city, respectively, the establishment of panel data error correction model to estimate the fluctuations of the real estate market, the short-term elasticity with respect to the length of the local financial revenue, and analyzes the difference between the three types of city real estate market fluctuations on the impact of local fiscal revenue, the differences for the Chinese government to distinguish between different area, it has important reference value to adopt different control measures.Secondly, the real estate prices on the impact mechanism of local fiscal revenue for a more detailed analysis, including the impact of price changes caused by the land revenue, direct tax effect, wealth effect and the related industry to drive the effect of local fiscal revenue. |
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