| "Financial disintermediation" phenomenon originated from America in the1960s. After World War II, the Roosevelt administration attaches great importance to the idea of government intervention in the economy of Keynes school, the Administration has begun to take macroeconomic policy intervention in the economy, its performance in financial regulation is Q regulations promulgated by the U.S. government in1960. Government restrictions on bank deposit interest rate cap making the American capital market interest rates higher than bank deposit rates, which cause the outflow of bank of deposit funding and ultimately lead to the emergence of "bank disintermediation" phenomenon. Follow the American’s,"financial disintermediation" phenomenon has also appeared in many countries around the world.Along with the continuous deepening of the reform of the Chinese market and the increasingly development of capital market or non-bank financial institutions, domestic scholars found signs of financial disintermediation in China. Especially during the period2006-2007, China’s stock market is in the period of bull market, corporate finance and residents’ deposits have turned to the capital markets by financial intermediaries, eventually leading Chinese significant financial disintermediation. The market economic development practice in developed economies suggests that financial disintermediation is the inevitable result of the financial restructuring in market economy reforms. However, the Chinese economy is in a transition period, therefore its financial system is not the same with foreign developed economic system. In recent years, two shares diametrically opposed forces of Chinese financial system appears under the double impact of the2008global financial crisis and the loose macroeconomic policies adopted by the Chinese government. One force is the factors which to deepen the Chinese financial disintermediation phenomenon, such as:the rising proportion of direct financing because of the development and expansion of the capital market, the diversion of bank funds based on the development of non-bank financial institutions and so on; while another force is the factors which to slow Chinese financial disintermediation and accelerate the process of re-intermediation, for instance:the continued innovation of bank off-balance sheet business and the increasing proportion of non-interest income as well as the increasing participation rate in market behavior and so on.Currently, the two forces ordinally is still unknown, so at this stage whether there are financial disintermediation phenomenon in China has not been determined. However, the current studies on Chinese financial disintermediation are mostly done under the premise of Chinese financial disintermediation trend increasingly obvious, few scholars has measured financial disintermediation in China by constructing the index system.Basing on the existing literature and combining the interpretation of financial disintermediation based on theory of financial intermediary function view, this paper quantitative measure the degree of Chinese financial disintermediation by defining the four indicators of financial disintermediation such as assets (debt) intermediary ratio、market intermediary ratio、credits (deposits) intermediary ratio and securitization ratio. Its trend display that assets (liabilities) ratio of disintermediation, credits (deposit) intermediary ratio have undergone relatively large fluctuations within the study period, especially the rapid decline in2006-2007and rapid ascent in2008, and now stage in a slow upward trend. The other two indicators’trend reversed in contrast to the previous two indicators.On the basis of the quantitative measure, this paper further uses MS-AR model and does dynamic structural change analysis for China’s financial system and financial disintermediation indicators. The empirical results show that:(1)Although the non-bank financial institutions has been developed rapidly in recent years, assets and liabilities of banks still dominate the structure of assets and liabilities in the financial sector.(2)Chinese traditional deposit and loan business is still in absolute advantage in non-financial sectors’ total assets and total liabilities of financial institutions, but the credit business have been weakened in both macro and micro levels and traditional financial sector deposits have been weakened in recent years.(3)Market disintermediation ratio shows market participation rate of China’s financial sector and non-financial sector has dramatically increased in recent years, this improved financial disintermediation situation in both financial sectors and banking level to a certain extent, making the financial system eventually turned again intermediary state. Therefore, it does not represent the disappear of financial intermediary function, but adjustment on financial intermediaries. Financial intermediaries provide financing for non-financial sector to make up the reducing of credit standards and increase funding by issuing stocks and bonds, so that the investment and financing structures of the financial sector eventually happen structural changes.(4)There is a lot of assaults of the economic environment can effect structural changes in China’s financial system, such as government macro-control、turbulent financial environment、public expectations and other unrest. That can reflect by disintermediation in2006-2007and the emergence of financial re-intermediation in2008.Therefore, financial regulators not only should strengthen supervision of Off-balance sheet business and innovative business in banks, but also adjust the scope of the legal system and the gradual liberalization of bank non-bank financial services, thus commercial banks can carry out cross-market business and product innovation in a more relaxed system environment. While commercial banks should also take some measures such as changing management philosophy, reasonable adjusting customer structure, enhancing business innovation to achieve a more relaxed living environment. |
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