Study On The Measurement And Influence Of Capital Service In Commercial And Trade Circulation Industry

After the reforms, the development of commercial and trade circulation industry is very quick. It is slowly becoming the most important part of service industries. At the same time, it is the intermediate link between production and consumption in the commodity markets. It plays an important role in the promotion of production, consumption, upgrading the industrial structure and promotion of transformation of economic growth mode. Therefore, scholars is focusing on the research about this industry. In these studies, estimation of capital investment is the most basic part. Throughout the study of capital investment, most researchers have just study the measurement of capital stock. Moreover, they just estimate the capital stocks of all industries in China, and sometimes may also estimate the capital stock of each province. The outcome of measurement of same industry is very rare, let alone the measurement of capital services in commercial and trade circulation industry. But our research will change this situation.The core content of the paper can be divided into four modules roughly. The first module, composed of chapter Ⅰ and chapter Ⅱ, introduces the basic information and research profiles. The second module which describes the principles of estimating capital services and capital service was calculated in is composed of chapter Ⅲ and chapter Ⅳ. The third module consists of chapter V, chapter Ⅵ. The main content of it is empirical analysis. This module is mainly related to the application of capital services.The fourth module, composed of chapter Ⅶ, is the conclusion. It introduces the research findings and shortcomings.In the first module, the paper explains the background, significance, content, articles framework, innovation and other basic information. At the same time, we focus on the development of capital services and measurement. And we summarize and comment on previous researches.In the second module, in terms of capital services estimation, we primarily introduce the framework and principles of capital services, including the retired model, the relative fraction mode, productive capital stock and capital lease price, etc. Based on detail theory, on the basis of large collecting data, we use the perpetual inventory method (PIM) to estimate the capital services in commercial and trade circulation industry. In this process, we deal with the various indicators seriously, especially the fixed-asset investment sequence, depreciation rates, and the capital lease price. In the end, this article estimates the productive capital stock series of three types of assets. These three types of assets are the construction and installation of equipment, instrument acquisition and other costs. Finally, we use capital lease price and Tornqvist index to get volume index of capital services sequence from1982to2012. It turns out that the growth rate of capital investment in commercial and trade circulation industry is fluctuated.The third module is about the application and analysis of the results of capital services estimation. In order to know well about the importance of capital services,this paper analyzes the effect of capital services for the development of the manufacturing industry and the effect on the development of commercial and trade circulation industry. First, in terms of the development of the commercial and trade circulation industry, we study on the impact of capital services. In this article, the time series model is the basis for the study. On this basis, we construct the vector auto-regression model(VAR), which is made up of added value, capital services and human capital. By the VAR model, We analyze the long-term equilibrium and short-term dynamic relationship between variables. Meanwhile, from the perspective of economic models model, the paper estimate the Cobb-Douglas production function of commercial and trade circulation industry. The result shows that the contribution rate of human capital estimated is greater than the capital services’s. Secondly, from the perspective of studying the impact of capital services to the manufacturing development, we use error correction model (VEC) to analyze the interaction between the manufacturing value added, manufacturing productive capital stocks, manufacturing human capital and the capital services of commercial and trade circulation Industry. The results show that the development of the manufacturing sector is significantly affected by the capital services of commercial and trade circulation Industry.The fourth module is a brief summary of the conclusions of this study, and it points out the deficiencies is this paper. In the future, we hope to solve the shortcomings and enhance outcome of the research.This study estimates the capital services of commercial and trade circulation Industry.And we make a analysis on the effect of capital services in manufacturing sectors and commercial and trade circulation Industry. This paper has a great theoretical and practical significance on the basic research of commercial circulation, commercial and trade circulation industry development planning, manufacturing upgrading, upgrading of manufacturing output.