Credit Risk Evaluation Of FTW Mode In Supply Chain Finance

With the development of the domestic economy, more and more small and medium sized enterprises appear in varies industries. The demand for corresponding financing is gradually exuberant. As the creative mode for the financing service, supply chain finance can not only solve the financing problem of the SMEs through multilateral cooperation, but also provide a very broad profit space for the logistics enterprises. This paper discussed the different financing modes of supply chain finance as well as the two new FTW financing modes from the standpoint of domestic commercial banks. During the analysis process, we identified the source of the credit risks. Nowadays, there are numerous researches towards the whole risk evaluation, but few attentions are cast on the influences of the3rd logistics enterprises on the supply chain finance. It means that there is something important needs to be researched in this area.Based on the previous research, we refined the field of supply chain finance and selected the FTW financing mode as the research object, focusing on the influence of the core logistics enterprises. We put forward the view that it is very important to summarize the characteristic of the core logistics enterprises and add it into the evaluation system as new variables. Then based on the comprehensive risk management theory and system management theory, we created a set of actual credit risk evaluation system, complying with the5C principles and the ’main&debt’ idea.In order to ensure the practicability and maneuverability of the new credit risk evaluation system, the expert method and principal component analysis were carried out for the further optimization of the indexes. For the selection of the model, we compared the applicability of traditional and modern evaluation methods under China’s national conditions, and ultimately determined to combine the principal component analysis together with the Logistic regression method to construct a basic model, and emphasized the idea that a comprehensive consideration of the traditional method and modern method can predict the risk more accurately. Then the distance to default (DD) from the KMV model was inserted into the basic model to build up a final comprehensive model.Finally, this paper selected47companies from Shenzhen SME Board as the sample data, and compared the prediction accuracy of the comprehensive model to the traditional model, only to find that the comprehensive built in this paper contributes higher prediction accuracy than the traditional one. The new comprehensive evaluation mode has advantages of robustness and prediction accuracy, and the new credit risk evaluation system was examined successfully.