Tourism Investment Economy Appraisal Research Based On Real Options

There is a lot of risk and uncertain factors in investment in tourism. So tourism investment value analysis is very important.This dissertation has systematically introduced the characteristics, the significance and pricing model of real option approach in tourism investment and has elaborated the process of its creative use in tourism investment. In the field of tourism, traditional decision—making methods cannot use uncertainties to create value while real option approach can change the degree of influence resulting from uncertainties. Through the use of passive and active flexibility, real option can avoid negative consequences and retain positive influence.Firstly,this paper described the background and significance of the research paper and described related concepts and various types of options implied in the stage of scenic area development.Then combined with the previous model and parameter determination method,it introduced model construction of real options in tourism investment project evaluation, obtained the corresponding results by computer program,pointed out the advantages and disadvantages of the application in real option method. Adopting Monte Carlo simulation method to estimate the fluctuation rate which is very effective and persuasive.