Research On Regional Agricultural Water Resources Management Under Uncertainty

In china, water resources are characterized by large amount, uneven distribution and little average possession. In recent years, along with the urbanzation, industrialization and rapid increase of population, water shortage has become more and more serious and the confilicts of water resources among domestic, industrial and agricultural demands have been intensified. It has been one of the main tasks in water resources management to promote sustainable development of socio-economic and environment by coordinating the relationship among various water consumption departments and formulating long-time exploition and utilization planning for water resources. Meanwhile, China is a large agricultual country, where agriculture consumes more than 65 precent of the total water. There are many problems in the process of agricultural resources utilization, such as low utilization efficiency, underdeveloped management systems and models. Therefore, agriculture hae a large water-saving potential. In addition, agricultural non-point pollution is becoming the main source of water pollution along with gradual deepening of China point sources pollution control efforts. Thus it is necessary to strengthen the agricultural non-point sources pollution control in agricultural water resources management. Water management systems is large and complex, where a variety of uncetainties exist. They are often intricately linked and can directly affect the rationality and applicability of water resources management models. This would have a significant impact on decision making. Therefore, the aim of this study is to deal with practical problems in regional water resources systems as well as the uncertainties. Based on the interval mathematical programming and fuzzy mathematical programming methods, this study formulates a regional water resources management model and an agricultural water resources management model for consumption departments and agricultural irrigation systems, respectively. The two models are applied to two counties in china to prove the feasibility and advantages. The results show that:(1) The rough-interval mathematical programming model can not only reflect the dual uncetainties in regional water management systems, but also deliver them to the optimization results by the interactive computing solution method. The results can provide flexible decision support in the form of intervals or rough intervals. In the case study, surface water(2) In the proposed regional agricultural water resources management model that based on fuzzy cerdibility constraint programming, decision makers can express their preference by various credibility levels and make a balanced agricultural water resources management strategy accroding to the actual contidions and needs.In summary, the proposed two models are valuable for local decision makers to achieve desired alternatives for regional water resources management under uncertainty, and provide new ideas for promoting the realization of coordinated development between social economy and environment.