Research Of Cotton Import Welfare Effect Changes And Its Influencing Factors

Since the reform and opening up, the domestic demand for cotton presents a substantial increase in the trend, but the domestic cotton production grew underpowered, resulting from the traditional Chinese cotton net exporter into a net importer, and imports fluctuated upward trend overall. A large number of cotton imports can really alleviate domestic demand for cotton, can increase the level of domestic social welfare and a series of issues worth considering, so changes in the welfare effects of China’s cotton imports and its influencing factors, which will not only help protect the domestic cotton and sustained and healthy development of related industries, but also it is advantageous to the country can make more reasonable cotton trade policy, safeguard national economic security and social stability, the study has a strong theoretical and practical significance.On the basis of China’s cotton production, consumption and import trade situation analysis, firstly use of Armington elasticity of substitution and welfare measure method of combining the model, Never consider the import tariff, Within the quota import tariff rates, and outside quote consider sliding rate changes on Chinese imports of the welfare effects of changes in cotton were measured and analyzed; then use Quantile method from cotton production, cotton demand, the development of cotton, cotton prices and international economic relations and so on to analyse the impact factors of import of Chinese cotton welfare effects, the results are as follows:(1) China’s cotton production increased slowly, after the first increase in the level of consumption decrease and imports rapidly rising instability. Relatively stable domestic cotton production, cotton production of 4.51 million tons from 1992 to 2013 of 6.31 million tons; domestic cotton consumption increases first and then decrease trend, first by the consumption of 4.93 million tons in 1992 to 2006 in11.67 million tons and then reduced to 8 million tons in 2013; cotton import quantity and imports large amount of volatility, instability, but an increasing trend, while cotton has always priced around $ 1.5 / kg fluctuations and import concentration of cotton is high, mainly in Australia, Brazil, India, the United States and Uzbekistan, the degree of concentration of up to about 80%, while China’s cotton imports accounted for a higher proportion of the world’s cotton imports and domestic cotton consumption, and were more than50%.(2) According to the Armington elasticity of substitution, domestic cotton and foreign cotton presents a complementary relationship in the short term, but in the long term relationship between the two alternatives presented; Under the condition of no tariffs on import welfare effect of Chinese cotton was a positive effect before WTO, but presents the negative effect after WTO accession; Within the quota tariffs import of China cotton short-term welfare effect is significantly greater than China’s cotton import welfare effect for a long time, and than no import duties on China’s cotton import welfare effect improved; Chinese cotton slip under quasi-quota tariff under the long-term elasticity of imports welfare effect is better than cotton imports under the welfare effects of short-term elasticity.(3)Using ordinary least squares method, welfare effects of China’s cotton imports are mainly impacted by domestic cotton acreage, domestic cotton yield, Chinese cotton exports, China’s cotton imports,domestic cotton consumption, domestic producer prices, import prices and domestic producer price ratio,degree of market and the impact of international economic relations. But using the Quantile regression method, the explanatory variables are showing different trends characteristic change.