The Measurement Of The Influence Factors On Chinese Inflation Based On The Perspective Of Foreign Trade

Since the implementation of Chinese reform and opening up policy, to date has been in the past 30 years. Rapid economic and social development of China attracts worldwide attention and the results of economic and social development shocked the world in the 30 years. At the same time, this rapid development has also led to a lot of problems in the course of development gradually exposed, such as increasing fast continuously of the domestic price level and long-standing imbalance in income distribution, it is urgent for china to restructure and upgrade of the structural transformation of the economy.As the 21 st century, our country further opening to outside world, import and export trade volume totaled increasing year and year and foreign exchange reserves of China keep on increasing with China’s accession to WTO. In 2005,China adopted the reform system, and gradually promotes the process of marketization of interest rates, the extent of the social market economy country continues to deepen. How these factors affect the conduction of the domestic price level with it in China’s foreign trade activities? And how to regulate Chinese macro-economic policy effectively and to make it more suitable for the present stage of economic and social needs of our country?First, we need to analyze the causes of inflation, we study classical theory of inflation and come what factors affecting inflation; Secondly, on the basis of analyzing the factors that affect our country’s phenomenon of inflation, We found main causes and transduction pathways that affect our country’s phenomenon of inflation; Finally this paper analyzes the factors of foreign trade how to impact on China’s inflation and the corresponding variables are obtained.Theoretical derivation results show that the exchange rate influencing the import and export and thus affect the foreign exchange reserves, then it affect the domestic money supply through foreign exchange reserves, it eventually lead to the change of domestic inflation. Through the empirical analysis found that there are long-term co-integrations relationship between import and export, foreign exchange, foreign exchange reserves and the CPI. Import, export and foreign exchange reserves play positive roles to the domestic price level, and there is a reverse inhibition from the exchange rate to domestic price level. Granger causality test results show that the causal relationship between variables meet up with theoretical derivation results. From the point of short-term impact effect and the point of variance decomposition results, foreign exchange reserve and exchange rate are the key factors influencing the CPI. From, what effects the largest on inflation rate is.