Research On Selection Of The Project Risk Response Strategy Based On Similar Cases Analysis

Recently, due to the successful application of project risk management in the enterprise, more and more companies recognize the importance of the project risk management. Meanwhile, with the rapid development of science and technology, the globalization of the world economy, risk category is growing proliferation and project risk management requirements are also increasing, therefore, project risk management has become a key factor to ensure the success of the project. And strategy selection for project risk control has been the core issue of project risk management, discussing how to select strategies can help companies manage project risk better, and has an important significance to the success of the project.This paper deeply studied the strategy selection method for project risk control based on similar cases, on the basis of the summary and analysis of strategy selection for project risk control problem. The main work includes the following three aspects:(1) An approach to screen and extract similar historical cases is proposed. Aim at the complex and huge historical cases, this paper proposed an approach to screen and extract similar historical cases. Since the form of property of each case is different, it first need to transform different forms of attribute information into the same form, and this paper chose to transform into it with the cumulative distribution function of the random variable; Then, by comparing the cumulative distribution function of the attribute values between the target case and historical case to calculate the deviation, then got the similarity between the target case and the case histories; Finally, by setting the threshold, exclude unrelated case, and identify and extract the similar historical cases.(2) An approach to strategy selection for project risk control considering the similar cases is proposed. Aim at the strategies for project risk selection problem, this paper proposed a kind of project risk response strategy selection method based on a similar case. First, base on similar historical cases extracted out to build a suitable project risk indicators system response to the implementation of the results of the project strategy selection problem; Then, the index system determine the corresponding indicators weights; Finally, assess the results of utility, and then get the best risk response strategies.(3) The potential application of the proposed method is showed. In this paper, A high-tech industrialization project risk coping strategies selected for demonstration background, consider project risk response strategy selection method applied research in the project based on the similar cases, to verify the feasibility and applicability of the proposed method.This paper proposes a method of risk response strategies for the project selection based on similar cases analysis, which provides a reference method for risk response strategies for the project selection. This method can help decision makers to select the appropriate risk response in a timely manner and improve the efficiency of risk response. It also minimizes the loss brought about by the project risks.