Research On The Impact Of The Inflation Expectations To Price

People’s Bank of China has been always aimed at stabilizing commodity prices and nourishing the economic growth by using the mixed-monetary policy framework based mainly on quantity while price subsidiary. With the development of financial market and the Interest rate marketization reform deepened,the response of quantity-monetary-policies adjustment to market is declining in the moment.And the time of adjustment to priced-monetary policy is ripe.At the same time, the "Twelfth Five Year Plan" clearly put forward the importance of the inflation expectations management.In such state of affairs,we are trying to establish a priced- monetary-policy model to analyze the impact on inflation expectation by using empirical analysis methods.First of all,we selected the macroeconomic model of "new consensus" as the basis for building the priced-monetary-policy in China.In this paper, we introduce this macroeconomic theory from four aspects:the endogenous money supplement,adjusting the monetary implementation by using interest method,transmission mechanism, and the theoretical model.We discussed the advantages and disadvantages of this theory.Secondly, looking back the main trend from quantity-monetary policy to priced-monetary policy,we pointed out the external factors which could influenced the priced-monetary-policy in China: the independence problem of the central bank,the inflow of international capital, the coordination between macro-economic control and oversight mechanism.Then, we analyze the adapted by using Two factor gaussian model of the affine term structure of interest rates and Kalman filtering.The output gap could be estimated and the interest rate as a variable force in the priced-monetary policy model could be clear by using Time series of the wavelet analysis method.Last, we build up the "new consensus" macroeconomic model, and discuss the problem how inflation expectation influences the interest, output gap, and inflation.By using these methods, we conclude that the aggregate demand is influenced tremendously by the priced-monetary-policy with interest as representative. As the inflation expectation exists, short-term Phillips curve exists and is inclined upward. Interest rate rules are effective which is used for controlling the inflation. Monetary policy is of strong and reasonable response for inflation.