A Simulating Research Of New Energy Vehicle Diffusion Model

As the earth’s climate is deteriorating, environment is destroyed, the environmental problem is begin to attract our attention increasingly. As a substitute for traditional oil vehicle, New energy vehicles can solve the problem of traditional car that high energy consumption and high oil fuel emissions effectively, mitigate emissions and save fuel resources.It also carry out the aim of low carbon economy, and become a part of the cars’ market that can’t be ignored. However, compared with the sales of new energy car in foreign, sales of new energy vehicles in China has met great difficulties, its popularity is not optimistic. How to promote new energy vehicles in China spread quickly and effectively has become a urgent problem.Diffusion of new energy vehicles is a complex process influenced by a variety of factors, so that the traditional empirical methods can’t work effectively, so the literatures written by the domestic scholars who research the diffusion of new energy vehicles is rare.In this paper, on the basis of the development status of new energy vehicles in China, we thorough analysis of new energy vehicles diffusion mechanism, divide the consumers of the auto market as opinion leaders and ordinary consumers, and use Netlogo software as the platform, to build a Agent-based model of new energy vehicles diffusion. This model will focus on the consumer behavior, and introduce "consumat" consumer cognition model so that the individual consumer under different satisfaction have different cognitive processes, it makes the simulation which simulates the consumer behavior of the market more realistic.Finally through the control of the emulation experiment, we get the data use for analyzed, and thus reveals the fact that the opinion leaders plays an important role in Chinese new energy vehicle diffusion. It helps us to provide some advice for Chinese manufacturers to develop new energy automobile marketing and government agencies proposed measures.