Interest Perspective Impact On The Stock Price Of The Economic Cycle On

In recent years, along with our country industrial structure adjustment and the transformation of the pattern of economic development, industrial structure and quality improved obviously, the growth of the national economy has entered the "new normal". And along with our country economy to develop continuously in the process of reform, the stock market is expected to 08 continuous decline since the first round of the bull market, by the end of 2014 the stock price index reached more than 3300 points, huge short-term gains, bring huge influence to investors and economic development. And in the volatility process of stock, there are so many factors can affect the price; In many factors, interest rate policy as "baton" of economic development but also the stock price fluctuations can’t be ignored an important factor; In addition, economic fluctuation cycle is also a important factor that the decision to the long-term trend of the stock market. Interest rate changes on how the stock market influence mechanism and effect, not only the relationship between the conduct of monetary policy effect, also affect the development of Chinese stock market and even the national economy. Based on the Chinese stock market since the establishment of volatility and the cycle of economic development as the research background, on the basis of other scholar’s theory and empirical studies, in different stages of economic development in our country study interest rate effect on stock price relation; Based on the empirical research on the selected variables for generating monthly data, the Shanghai index monthly data, interbank lending rates for seven days monthly data, through the cointegration test, granger causality test to analyze the empirical results, provide powerful basis for the central bank to adjust interest rates.Through the different stages of economic development rate and the trend of stock fluctuations of the empirical analysis, draw the following Conclusion:(1) although the stock market in China has experienced 20 years of development, but is still in its infancy, the market has not line into a good running system, speculative phenomenon is relatively serious, effective market as a whole become low, caused our country interest rates change on the stock price fluctuation effect is not obvious, namely the two and there is no significant relationship.(2) the overall economic cycle for the impact of stock price in China is significant, but will also show the differences between different economic cycle; During 2001-2007, the continuous rapid economic growth, generating more obvious effects on stock movements; But during 2008-2014, 08 years of economic crisis, the economy in the middle of a decline in channel, the capacity and stock present negative correlation, this is due to the inertia of the enterprise production.(3) when the economy at different stages of development in China, interest rate policy effects on stock has obvious difference. When the economy is at the stage of rapid development from 2001 to 2007, the restriction of the adjustment of interest rate on stock prices has not achieved, this is because the public optimism for the future economic development and income, offset by the effect of interest rate policy. Conversely when the economy is at the stage of adjustment in 08 years, the interest rate will be impacted by the corresponding effect.