Study Of Quantitative Supervision On Peer-to-peer Lending

As a financial innovation, P2 P lending makes great difference in improving our existing financial system, by satisfying small and medium-sized enterprise financing and private capital investment simultaneously. With the rapid development of P2 P lending, the related risks are accumulating. Negative news about P2 P lending company’s close-down or run-away had been reported so frequently since 2013, which greatly hindering the industry. Therefore, the regulation policy is imminent, changing the industry status and promoting healthy development for the industry. The government should offer support to P2 P industry rather than making too much intervention. To do this, this thesis has been trying to set up a quantitative supervision system based on a series of quantitative method for P2 P lending platforms in China, in order to providing China Banking Regulatory Commission with reference.In the aspect of qualitative analysis, this thesis firstly chose some indexes to introduce the development of P2 P lending in China, including operating details and operation pattern. Then, we analyzed the existing risk in P2 P lending, such as Legal risk, business risk, credit risk of default etc. Secondly, we studied the supervision on P2 P lending in China to determine the supervisory attitude towards P2 P lending, providing view of research for the coming study. In the aspect of quantitative analysis, this thesis firstly applied the correlation analysis and principal component analysis to construct an evaluation index system of supervision, on the base of classical credit rating method. Then we chose a proper evaluation model based on entropy modified G1 method to evaluate the P2 P lending platform. This evaluation model is more suitable in this thesis because it can be used to reveal the statistical characters of P2 P lending platforms and the supervisory policy. After that, we chose to build a risk-warning model based on Logistic model, which turned out to be highly efficient. At least but not least, we tried to apply the quantitative supervision system we built to actual supervision on P2 P lending, acceralating the healthy and further development of P2 P lending industry.