The Research On Synchronization Of Chinese Regional Business Cycles

Since the Chinese reform and opening up in 1978, our economic development has always been in a sustained and rapidly growth stage, people’s living standard is increasing day by day, but some problems such as the huge economic gaps between regions and the imbalance of regional development have gradually become the obstruction of China’s economic development. At the same time, along with 30 years’reform and opening up of continued deepen, the preliminarily establishment of the market economy system and the effective implementation of the national macroeconomic policies, such as specific strategies which were known as the "western development", "central rise" and "revitalization of the northeast old industrial zone", the economic development gap between regions is gradually narrowing, and the economic development of the relationship between regions has been increasingly closer.While the economic problems mentioned above can be researched from a variety of levels, compares to study growth rate and per capita income alone, this paper argues that regional economic cycles and fluctuations can better reveal the regional characteristics of China. Therefore, this paper hopes to capture the collaboration of China’s provinces and regions economic cycle stages from a whole new angle, which is the regional economic analysis of cycle and fluctuation. On the basis of this, we explore the collaboration of economic cycle stages between the three regions’internal economy, and give further relevant policy suggestions on the basis of combining with China’s macroeconomic policy, which will be helpful to understand the collaboration of east, central and west economic cycle fundamentally and may draw more valuable suggestions on this.Modern regional economic cycle theory is still in its infancy, the understanding of the regional economic cycle, the research methods and theoretical models regarding needs to be further researched and developed. Among them, the study of the regional economic cycle in China started even later, there was almost no regional economic cycle theory literature, either the introduction of the existing research abroad. There was only empirical research relatively speaking. According to the existing literature, there are mainly two types of the empirical research of China’s regional economic cycle study, the first is about the similarity of China’s regional economic fluctuation, which is mainly of the collaborative description and analysis of the driving factors, there is also a part of the study considered including amplitude and other economic fluctuation characteristics of regional differences; the second is to discuss the regional effect of macro policy, especially the regional effects of monetary policy.This paper is based on the study of the scholars at home and aboard, with the sample space of interpolation transformation of the annual GDP growth rate data of Chinese twelve mainland provinces to monthly data, we use the BB algorithm to get the specific provinces’economic cycle stages, and refer to the Harding and Pagan’s degree of concordance to investigate the features of Chinese regional economic cycle phase synchronization, and eventually try to take advantage of the Harding-Pagan index and correlation coefficient and introduce them into our synchronization analysis field. At the same time, by using the nonparametric method of collaborative text, we extract the common cycle of multivariate economic sentiment indicator of GDP growth rate, and suggest the relevant policy according to the conclusion of the research we conduct.On the analysis of the regional collaborative aspect, this paper transforms the annual data to the monthly data, then use the BB algorithm to get the turning points of the provincial economic cycle phases as a result, on this basis, we build the concordance index and the correlation coefficient between the provincial economic cycle phases, and test the significance of the correlation coefficient by using the generalized method of moments. Finally, this paper is based on Harding-Pagan’s nonparametric method, and we try to implement procedure of this method, we extract the common cycle of economic sentiment indicator and provide a new economic boom means of measurement in order to achieve regional and regional collaborative analysis.Eventually, we concluded that:from the point of internal provinces of the twelve, since reform and opening up, the correlation coefficient and the concordance index of span of the twelve provinces’economic cycle phases are relatively modest, but the economic cycle fluctuation within 70%～80% of the time is consistent; from the internal of regions, the synergistic effect of China’s economic cycle phases also have the club effect, namely the collaboration between three areas within the provincial economic cycle phases is higher than the level of national average collaboration; from the point between different regions, the synergistic effect of regional economic cycle in our country is higher, but there are certain differences of the part of the turning points in the cycle of regional economy as well as the duration of the cycle. The differences are systematic, they are highly related with the industrial structure, the strength of government control, the government policy guidance, the degree of opening up to the outside world and economic development level of regional features. In the face of these characteristics of the regional economy in our country, we should establish and improve the early warning and monitoring mechanism of regional economic cycle. At the same time, we should re-examine the macro-control policy refinement spatial hierarchy, and use various means actively to create good synergistic effect between the regional economic development in our country. In the long term, though there are some problems with regional differences, cultural differences and historic problems in China’s regional economy, as long as we adhere to the implement of correct macro-economic policies, China’s regional economy can still keep stable, harmonious and collaborative development, and the socialist modernization will keep develop steadily.