Analysis Of China Textile And Apparel Trade Development And The Influence Of The TPP Agreement

After the financial crisis of 2008, the United States put forward the strategic goal of returning to the Asia-Pacific areas to quickly get rid of the financial crisis, and take the initiative to join the TPP negotiations in an attempt to weaken China’s discourse power in Asia. TPP agreement signed on February 4, 2016, in the early negotiations, the agreement aimed at the formation of a high standard and comprehensive free trade agreements in the twenty-first Century, and proposed to achieve the zero tariff in goods trade among Member States. Once coming into effect, Textile and Apparel export of our country will suffer a sever loss. Especially for the textile and apparel of the United States. The paper aims to analyze the export situation in China and key members of TPP, through it reveals China’s main competitors and the level of competition. Finally, we can quantify the implementation of TPP by the GTAP model.Based on the review of the theory of free trade, this paper analyzes the theory step by step, which obtains mainly three methods: firstly, analyzing the main competitive areas in the United States textile market between China and these countries through China’s exports to Vietnam, Canada and Mexico. Secondly, determining the competitiveness of China and the three countries in the textile and apparel market. by calculating the similarity of products, market share and trade competitiveness advantage index. Thirdly, making quantitative analysis the effect on textile and apparel market exporting to US by GTAP model.The results show that, there is a fierce competition in the textile and apparel import market in US between China and Vietnam, Canada, Mexico. Among these five countries, the export of raw materials and manufactured goods is in dominant position in China. But the garment exports are subject to the competition from Vietnam. Analyses show that the foundation of TPP has serious effect on the apparel industry in China. But given the huge population base of China to the United States textile and apparel export trade, the TPP will not have devastating impact on China; on the contrary, it will push China’s textile and apparel industry transformation and upgrading.