An Empirical Studyon The Demand And Pricing Of The Housing Reverse Mortgages In China

It is observed that the society is now confronting the issue that aging citizens with low incomes. When it comes to the reason of it, two points should be take into consideration. On one hand, degree of the aging population has become more serious; on the other hand, the witness a shortage in the social pension and insurance system. Fortunately, reverse mortgage served as a efficient method to alleviate the pressure of social insurance.Based on that, this thesis intends to study the developing course of reverse mortgage at home and abroad and compare the necessity and practicality of the reverse mortgage development in China. By questionnaire, this thesis is carrying out multinominal Logit model and analyzing key factors which play a key role in the course of reverse mortgage demand, which concluded that educational background, monthly expenditure, gender, monthly salary and maintenance obligation from children, and among them the first two plays a positive role in it while the rest three plays the opposite role. What’s more,more study focuses on no-option pricing model of reverse mortgage, and analysis of fluctuation rate was also included in this model. Moreover, subtle analysis of the result will be conducted, along with changing degree of payment limits from the perspective of risk management, with the purpose of providing valuable suggestions for increasingly sever matter of aging population.Last but not least, the author also explores the risks of reverse mortgage facing in china, which included interests risk, longevity risk, fluctuation of real estate risks and moral risk. The author has offered strategy and measure respectively towards the each risk. Based upon the above introduction and analysis of the first few chapters, the conclusion of reverse mortgage has been provided, several suggestions and direction further research would be given based on the study result of the reverse mortgage.