Prediction Of Shaanxi Province Technology Trading Scale

In the past five years, Shaanxi province technology trading market was developing rapidly, the scale of technology trading showed a continued rapid expansion trend.This change has been attached great importance to the government of Shaanxi Province, and regard the technology market turnover of the contract as one of the main indexes to evaluate the science and technology progress of Shaanxi Province、the competitiveness of regional innovation ability and the work effectiveness of the technology market.“The Twelfth Five Year Plan of science and technology of Shaanxi province” also put forward a clear goal for the end of The Twelfth Five Year Plan. Therefore, to straighten out the development status of Shaanxi Province technology trading, to learn well the reasons for the development of Shaanxi province technology trading scale and to master the development trend of the technical trading scale will be important for us.We collected the turnover of Shaanxi Province technology transaction contract from the national technical contract online registration system, and selected the turnover as the starting point to research and forecast the development scale of Shaanxi Province technology trading. Based on the detailed study on the development process of the technology market in Shaanxi province in recent thirty years, we divided the development of technology market into four stages.Then it introduced the development condition of Shaanxi province technology trading, three kinds of main bodies and four kinds of technology contract clearly. Then we studied the development reason for technology trading scale from the two aspects of demand pull and technology push with Granger causality analysis tests. And on this basis, a multi-factor grey forecasting model GM(1,N) was established to predict and explain the development trend of Shaanxi province technology trading in 2014 and 2015,then, we improved the model for dynamic forecast. The model GM(1,1) was established to predict and explain the turnover of three kinds of main body and four kinds of technology contract in 2014 and 2015. Finally, some corresponding countermeasures and suggestions were put forward to cope with the existing problems in the development of technology trading.