A Study On The Influence Of The Developed Economies In The Quantitative Easing Monetary Policy On The Exchange Rate Fluctuations Of RMB

With the post crisis era, the American economy lead the recovery, Japan and the euro zone economy remains in the doldrums, Quantitative Easing monetary policy see the gradually transition from global phase to the post crisis era of differentiation stages. Especially since November 2014, the United States has been out of the last six years of Quantitative Easing monetary policy, marking the development of Quantitative Easing monetary policy has entered a new stage. In this context, it is urgent to study the impact of Quantitative Easing monetary policy on the exchange rate of RMB. On the one hand, the impact of the Quantitative Easing monetary policy in developed economies is different from the past, and the differentiation of Quantitative Easing monetary policy makes it more complicated. On the other hand, in recent years, with the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, professional traders in the foreign exchange market of China will continue to improve, constantly expanding the number of transactions in the foreign exchange market and the kinds of transactions, Quantitative Easing monetary policy of RMB exchange rate changes more quickly, the effect is more complex.At the end of 2014, the euro area and Japan have announced the implementation of Quantitative Easing monetary policy to save the national macro-economic, which channels that the economically developed body of Quantitative Easing monetary policy affects the RMB exchange rate change? Do they have changed the behavior of the RMB exchange rate fluctuations? What is the difference between the different countries and the change of the RMB exchange rate fluctuations? Does the Chinese foreign exchange market play a role in the process of RMB exchange rate fluctuations? Answering these problems need a system research. From the recent domestic and foreign scholars’research, we can see that although the Quantitative Easing monetary policy and exchange rate movements have attached extensive attention, but the research is mostly limited to the macroeconomic perspective, scholars’research conclusions are widely divergent. Therefore, studying from a new perspective to re-examine the effects of Quantitative Easing monetary policy of RMB exchange rate fluctuation not only enrich the existing research, but also complement with China continues to carry out exchange rate formation mechanism reform.In view of the above problems, the first part in this paper gives the research background, namely the latest progress of the theory of exchange rate, the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism of continuous improvement, developed economies of the Quantitative Easing monetary policy diverged. Next, it gives a summary of the research on the quantitative easing monetary policy and exchange rate fluctuation, and concludes the innovation and shortage of the research, In the second part, this paper gives the Quantitative Easing monetary policy and exchange rate changes fluctuations concepts, then, introduces the theory of the exchange rate fluctuation of exchange rate fluctuation, and the main evidence of the exchange rate fluctuation theory and empirical researches. Finally, the theoretical model of the impact of quantitative easing monetary policy on exchange rate fluctuation is established under the framework of the foreign exchange dealer pricing model (DP). In the third part, firstly, the author points out that America, the euro area, Japan’s economy economic ties with China most closely, the Quantitative Easing monetary policy influences on the RMB exchange rate fluctuations should not be ignored. Then it combed the characteristics and future trends of quantitative easing monetary policy. Secondly, it analyzes the impacts of Quantitative Easing monetary policy on the exchange rate of RMB fluctuations from the macro perspective and micro perspective after financial crisis, analyzes the RMB exchange rate fluctuations against the U.S. dollar, the euro dollar and the yen respectively. Giving the correlation analysis, statistical description analysis, Granger causality test etc.. Finally, this part analyzes the influence factors and the impact of the Quantitative Easing monetary policy on the exchange rate of RMB fluctuations. In the fourth part, firstly, the author select Markov regime transformation model according to the theoretical analysis on the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate, then, on the basis of the daily data, by introducing the nominal money supply difference variable, the nominal benchmark interest rate difference variable, foreign exchange market trading direction variable, foreign exchange trading market variables, giving the empirical analysis on the RMB exchange rate changes fluctuations. Finally, give robustness tests for the estimated Markov regime switching model, the RMB exchange rate fluctuations conversion analysis, the comparative analysis of the United States, Japan and Europe Quantitative Easing monetary policy effects on the RMB exchange rate fluctuations.The conclusion of this study shows:macroeconomic factors and micro factors of RMB exchange rate changes have a significant impact; effects of Quantitative Easing monetary policy on the RMB exchange rate fluctuations present nonlinear characteristics; the macro factors are the root causes of the RMB exchange rate fluctuations, the micro factors are the direct causes of the RMB exchange rate fluctuations; the withdrawal of Quantitative easing monetary policy gives the RMB exchange rate fluctuations challenges and opportunities.