The Influence Of Social Financing Scale On The Real Economy And The Industrial Structure Upgrade

Imbalance of industrial structure is a main problem China’s real economy faces at present. Since the secondary industry still occupies a high proportion in the national economy, development speed of the tertiary industry slows down, traditional industries are "highly inflexible and ineffectual because of recalcitrant subordinates", while emerging industries are "poorly developed", the growth of China’s real economy is going through a "bottleneck period". There is a close relationship between financial structure and the adjustment and upgrade of industrial structure, while industrial structure upgrade drives the growth of the real economy, therefore, it is of great importance to explore how social financing scale and structure influences real economy growth and industrial structure upgrade.Combining the empirical analysis method and the normative analysis method, the paper applies the normative analysis method to systemize relevant basic concepts about social financing structure, historical changes and current situation of China’s social financing structure. Meanwhile, with "finance serves the real economy" as the basic principle, by establishing the variable parameter state space model and the short panel model, the paper starts from the national economic aggregate and the local perspective, to analyze the influence of social financing structure on real economy growth and industrial structure upgrade. As indicated by the empirical results, social financing scale growth promotes real economy growth and industrial structure upgrade, but its promoting function on industrial structure upgrade is relatively weak; in social financing structure, the influence of financial institutions’ on-balance and off-balance sheet activities financing and direct financing on real economy growth and industrial structure upgrade is waning and waxing, among which financial institutions’ on-balance sheet activities financing still plays the leading role in social financing. Regional differences exist when it comes to the influence of different regions’ social financing structures on real economy growth and industrial structure upgrade:financial institutions’ on-balance sheet activities financing promotes real economy growth in various regions, it has an inhibiting effect on industrial structure upgrade only in the central region; financial institutions’ off-balance sheet activities financing has a promoting function on real economy growth in central and western regions, and it only accelerates industrial structure upgrade in the central region; direct financing has the most obvious promoting function on both real economy growth and industrial structure upgrade, its unapparent promoting function on industrial structure upgrade is only reflected in the eastern region.