Research On The Impact Of International Oil Price Fluctuation On Russian Economic Growth

Since mankind entered in twenty-first Century, with the development of the world economy and the rise of emerging countries, the world’s demand for oil is increasing. Now,Russia is one of the world most major oil exporting countries, in an era of rapid growth in international oil prices, Russia’s reliance on exports large quantities of petroleum access to the huge foreign exchange income, these oil wealth to support and promote the rapid development of Russia’s economy. Therefore, many domestic scholars began to study the relationship between international oil prices and Russia’s economic growth. Relationship between the in-depth study on the international oil price and the Russian economy, can make the scholars in the related fields of the more profound understanding gained since the Russian state transition of the fruits of economic growth and promote the major dynamic factors in the growth of the national economy. At the same time, the research results of related issues have a very important theoretical reference value and practical significance to the related cooperation between China and Russia.Based on the relevant literature theory, the author reviews the related articles and writings about the influence of the international oil price fluctuation on the economic growth of a country since 1970 s. Foreign scholars research results confirmed that the international oil price fluctuations on the oil importing country’s economic growth with the influence of non symmetry, for example, the rise in international oil prices, in the United States and other developed countries has significantly stimulating economic growth. But when international oil prices fall, the positive impact on oil importing countries is much smaller than expected. Next, the article conducts the research from the theory conduction mechanism, takes the Keynes law as the transmission mechanism the theory foundation.International oil prices through the impact on Russia’s consumer demand, investment demand, foreign trade demand, government spending and national income, thereby affecting the development of the Russian domestic macroeconomic. In 2014 reached 50%international oil price decline, the growth rate of real wages in Russia is only 4.9%, the actual income fell sharply, resulting in the lack of consumption demand; international oil prices led to a crisis of confidence in the Russian financial market turbulent, diffusion,large-scale arbitrage capital withdrawal, the investment multiplier effect, decrease investment scale; the international oil price fluctuations will bring the ruble exchange rate is not stable, directly affect Russia’s import and export trade; international oil prices by the price mechanism and mechanism of income from government spending, a direct impact on government production expenditure and consumption expenditure and disposable income,the multiplier effect, the impact on Russia’s economic growth; therefore, the international oil price by in the total demand in Russia further affect its national income.The empirical test of this paper uses the international oil price and the macro economy in the consumer demand, investment demand, foreign trade demand, government expenditure, the gross domestic product, the establishment of VAR model. The results of empirical analysis: first of all, from the Granger causality test statistics results international oil price fluctuations on the Russian economy growth there is a one-way causalrelationship(GDP), indicating that Russia’s economic growth is vulnerable to fluctuations in international oil prices. Next, the impulse response function to further analysis that international oil price fluctuations on Russia private consumption, investment, foreign trade, government spending, gross domestic product were in the first quarter caused to the disturbance response. This fully reflects the impact of the international oil price fluctuations on the Russian macro economy only a quarter of the lag, and lag time and the oil trade contract price changes similar to the synchronization. Finally, in this thesis, the variance decomposition analysis further showed that the contribution of international oil price fluctuations on Russia’s gross domestic product is 10.3%, the overall macroeconomic development in Russia for oil is quite dependent on the, but Russia’s influence on international oil prices is very small, only a passive acceptance of the international oil price fluctuations. In order to solve the international oil prices on the growth of the Russian economy caused by the negative impact, and enhance the independence of Russia’s economic growth. The author believes that the Russian government accelerate the promotion and implementation of foreign trade and economic modernization strategy, to reduce the proportion of energy of the structure of export commodities; continue to reform the oil tax system, optimize the allocation of oil rents; stimulating domestic demand and stimulate economic growth. Finally the Russian government to participate actively in the international oil pricing system, reduce the negative impact of international oil price fluctuations on the economic development.