| According to the statistic of national economic and social development of Anhui Province, the Gross Regional Product (GDP) of Anhui Province reached 2200.56 billion yuan in 2015, with 8.7% larger than last year, the increase is larger than the national average data 6.9%. Therefore, the development is relatively rapid in some way. Kuznets have pointed out that in the development of local economy, the leading industry will change from the primary industry to the secondary industry, finally change to the tertiary industry. Which means that the industrial structure has the inner principle, which is that the agriculture oriented gradually changed to be industry oriented, and finally to be service industry oriented. This principle will promote the economic development.However, the industrial structure of Anhui Province has not became upgrading, with the economic development still depends on the secondary industry. Hu Liangyi have pointed out that the economic development of Anhui Province is accomplished by adjusting the industrial structure. Only by doing this, can the economy be boosted. For the future development, following the other first-tier cities, Anhui Province has to adjust the industrial structure, to be based on the tertiary industry. While in the changing, the economy will be influenced or not is worthy being researched.Therefore, this paper studied the industrial structure and economic fluctuation, and analysis the logical relationship between them. The major work is consistent with five part: The first chapter is the introduction part, which introduce the research background and significance, industrial structure, economic fluctuation, the papers about the influence of industrial structure change on the economic fluctuation. We not only analysis the research method and article framework, but also point out the lacking of innovation. The second chapter is concept definition and data processed. This chapter is the basement of the whole article, introducing the scholars’ definition and pretreatment about industrial structure and economic fluctuation, being foundation as the theory and data support for the further qualitative and quantitative analysis. The third chapter is the characteristic analysis of the correlation between the industrial structure and economic fluctuation. Taking the industrial structure changing, fluctuations of three major industries and economic cycle fluctuation as the research object, using Moore index and HP filtering method to define the value of changes of industrial structure of Anhui, thegrowth rate fluctuations of three industries, analysis their properties, preliminary charactering the influence of industrial structure change on economic fluctuation and preparing for the next analysis. The fourth chapter is the empirical analysis, according to the data of Anhui Province from 1978 to 2015, analyzing the impact of industrial structure change on economic fluctuation from two aspects. Firstly, considering the influence on the whole. Secondly, considering the impact of periodic fluctuation of three major industries. In the fifth chapter, we summarize the whole article and conclude that the impact of industrial structure change on economic fluctuation. Then, we suggest ways to scientifically adjust the industrial structure change.This study found that the industrial structure of Anhui province which is in the process of changing is becoming more and more reasonable since the reform and opening. The degree of resource allocation of three industries is getting higher, meanwhile, the coupling degree of industrial structure and employment structure is getting better. Through the Grainger causality test we find that there is a reciprocal causation relationship between industrial structure change and economic fluctuation. Besides, our study suggest the influence of changes of three industries on economic fluctuation is different; the effect of the first industry fluctuation on economic fluctuation is reducing with a reduction in the proportion of the primary industry, while the effect of second industry fluctuations on the economic fluctuations of Anhui has been stable, and maintain a high impact. The tertiary industry, an emerging industry structure, has its own certain stability in structure, with the rapid development, its effect on the stability of the economic fluctuation is more and more strong. |
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