Study On Effects Of Government Debt On Economic Growth

After the 2008 global financial crisis, in order to cope with the economic crisis and to stimulate economic recovery, governments adopted the expansionary fiscal policies. While government debt play a positive role in promoting economic development and cope with the crisis some aspects, but it leads to countries in some of the urgent need to pay attention to the economic problems, expanding scale of fiscal deficit and government debt sharp rise has caused the extensive concern, countries accumulated a large amount of government debt, which led to the concerns about the economic impact of the scholars and economists on expansion of government debt. Therefore, in this context, further exploring the significance of the effect of government debt on the economy growth becomes more and more important and studying government debt on economic growth generated effects becomes more economic valurable.The research results of domestic and foreign scholars on the impact of government debt on economic growth are more and more, there are also a wealth of research results. Domestic and foreign scholars tend to study the problem of government debt is divided into two main bodies of developed countries and developing countries. However, due to the differences of economic and social environment and political environment, foreign scholars’ conclusions may not be able to reflect the actual situation of emerging economies. And with the development of the world economy, emerging economies in the development of the world economy plays more and more important role, also plays a more important role, and emerging economies government debt problem is more and more prominent, therefore, research on emerging economies government debt becomes more necessary.However, at present,the study of government debt in emerging economies on the economic growth effect few, most of them only study the government debt "threshold" of existence to analyze the government debt on the economy growth of non-linear effects. In this paper, based on the previous studies, using the interception of the panel data of emerging economies in 2000-2013, to research government debt on economic growth. On this basis, this paper can be divided into six parts, Chapter 1 is the introduction, systematically and comprehensively introduces the background and research significance of the topics, research methods, the literature review and the innovation point. The second chapter introduces the theory of government debt and economic growth theory, analysis of the theory of government debt on the economic growth theory and the mathematical model of transmission mechanism. Chapter three constructed a nonlinear panel data model, the use of individual fixed effects and random effects analysis method has carried on the empirical research and analysis of the, and analyze the government debt ratio of nonlinear effect on economic growth, reveals the nonlinear relationship between government debt and economic growth, thus change the effect of government debt on economic growth, to determine whether there is a possibility of the existence of "yu value". The fourth chapter introduces the economic growth lagged, establishes a dynamic panel data model, from the perspective of interest rate inflation transmission mechanism for government debt, the effect of economic growth channels are analyzed. The fifth part is the summary of the empirical results, and according to the research results put forward some policy suggestions. The sixth part is the research question and prospect.Emerging economies are in the current period of economic transition, the economy has been rapid development, through the study of this paper, for countries to adjust the scale of government expenditure, prevent the government debt risk, deepen economic system reform etc. have certain enlightenment and to determine the scale of government debt of governments, reasonable arrangements for the structure of government expenditure to promote economic development has certain guiding significance.