The Study On Influence Of Forum Information On Stock Spot And Futures

With the rapid development of Internet technology, Internet technology has been widely applied to all kinds of industries. Internet has become an important platform for carrying information. A large amount of information is spread through the Internet media platform. At the same time, Internet provide media platform to the users to share, exchange and search information. Then the speed of information dissemination and diffusion has been greatly improved. Therefore, it is significant to study the Internet information dissemination, especially for the financial industry, studying the impact that Internet financial information on the financial market has a greater value.This paper studies stock forum information on the Internet platform, and explores whether the information exchange will affect the financial market. Based on the previous studies, from the outside information distribution’s point of view, considering investors’attention to the market in the trading session and non trading period is different, this impact that forum information has on the market should be respectively discussed. This paper chooses posting quantities as the information outside market, and return as transaction information inside the market. We explore the information transmission between stock market and stock futures market, inside and outside market by establishing the VAR model, Granger causality test and impulse response analysis. The conclusions are as follows:Whether the stock market or the stock futures market, forum information can predict the market returns. The forecast of stock forum information at the trading session on the market returns is significantly greater than the stock forum information at the non trading session. Information of stock futures forum is prior to information of the stock spot forum. Whether it is the stock spot or stock futures forum, the new information generated by the forum will make an impact on the returns of the stock spot market and the stock futures market. The impact of the new information of forum at the trading session on the market returns is greater than the new information of forum at the non trading session.Stock forum has been an important Internet community platform of information exchange for investors. Information exchange among investors has influence on the market, and the influence will be more and more significant with the rapid development of the Internet. So, this study provides some reference to investors to make investment decision, also provide a new angle of market supervision to the regulators.