Research On Integrated Model And Method Of The Credit Sale Decision Based On Choosing The Optimal Time

With the progress of technology, fierce competition and changing consumer preferences, companies must expand product sales to avoid missing the favorable market opportunities in the limited time. Therefore, it is that credit sale becomes the primary sales method. Credit sale, though brings corresponding benefits for both buyers and sellers, it also accompany credit risk for sellers. Whether the accounts receivable can be back on time and the bad debt would happen or not, is the focus of concern of enterprises. Whether the customer can be pay back on time, high and low price of product, demand shifting between different sale ways, and the probability of existing business opportunities are with relation to customer credit level. All these will affect the size of credit risk and the amount of credit sale profit, and also affect the determination of credit sale launched time. Therefore, in the case of business opportunities existing probability be reasonable estimated, how to adopt appropriate methods to judge customer’s credit level and the probability of normal performance, estimate the demand shifting between different sale ways by making reasonable price, improve the estimation accuracy of sales revenue and use reasonable scientific decision rules to determine the optimal time for enterprises launched credit sale in the limited research time, which is of great significance for the development of the enterprises.Firstly, this paper based on the consideration of incomplete information, the different credit level brings different credit risk for sellers. Therefore, according to the credit level of customers, the enterprises should formulate different risk premium rates, determine the different price standards, and estimate the one-way demand shifting quantity, measure the probability of existing business opportunity by the weighted average method, to establish the total sales revenue estimation model on the basis of considering various factors, it provides evidence for the time of launched credit sale. Secondly, based on the theory of geometric Brownian motion, this paper establishes the decision model of selecting the best opportunity of credit sale for enterprises from the perspective of sales methods. The model can estimate directly the credit sale launch time point through the time function, and introduce the new credit decision rules to change the method of previous studies which use two-period date to compare. The new model simplifies the operation and makes the scientific decision. Finally, this paper selects the appropriate enterprise as the case, through data collection, sorting and analysis, to apply and verify the integrated decision model and method of choosing the optimal time of the credit sale. The conclusion explains that the parameter estimation method is more reasonable, the accuracy and the scientific of revenue model and the decision model is further improving.