Research On Chinese Residents’ Grain Consumption In The Context Of New Policies

Grain consumption is in the terminal of the grain supply chain.Facing economic growth and social structure transformation,the increase of grain consumption and upgrading of consumption structure are putting pressure on grain supply,which also jeopardize food security potentially.Hence,the studies on the tendency of China’s grain consumption structure change and the prediction of grain consumption should pay close attention to national policy and strategic adjustment of macroeconomic policy adhering to keep pace with times.China’s 13 th Five-Year Plan is the runoff stage to build well-off society in an all-around way,along with domestic development environment generating new changes,adjustments will be made at a policy system level,which mainly show in the following aspects:Firstly,during the five year after avoiding middle-income trap,our residents’ living standards and dietary pattern will be in a new demand stage;Secondly,according to universal two-child policy,the growth rate of our population will rise in a reverse way;Thirdly,abolishing the dual household registration system and paying attention to the essence of urbanization development conduct a new round of adjustments on urban-rural population distribution structure.All these changes and adjustments will be likely to affect grain consumption directly,thereby creating new pressures and challenges on grain security.Given all this,this article discuss the increase of grain consumption demand and the extent of grain security impact behind people’s increasing income,absolute population growth and urban and rural population migration.What are the ultimate goals of this article provide important evidences for adjusting agriculture prosuction structure,optimizing configuration of cultivated land resources and keeping a reasonable control on dependence on foreign trade.By using the PCA method,this article is quantitative analysis of factors influencing our grain consumption,confirming that income of urban and rural residents,population size and urbanization development level are obvious factors.Based on analyse method of multivariate regression analysis of panel data, drawing similar comparsion between China and Korea economy and ARIMA model,it simulates three possible circumstances of our grain consumption in 2020 from the perspective of economic growth. Refer to application proportion of targeted population who want to reproduce under the selective two-child policy, literature reading are used to estimate the degree of influences on grain consumption which universal two-child policy brings. In addition to above methods, the article constructs evaluation index system that migrant workers citizenize by with entropy coefficient method. On the basis of composite index of urbanization of migrant workers during2008-2014 and change trend of weighted urbanization, it forecasts the degree of influences on grain consumption which migrants population between urban and rural residents cause in 2020.It turns out that based on three new policy backdrop, national increase of grain consumption will reach 34.49 million tons to 62.80. And among it, 23.47 million tons will come from the reason that the upgrade of consumption structure is accelerating because of household income growth, 4.13 million tones to 8.29 from fully implementing two-child policy, and 6.89 million tones from reforming the household registration system. At least 6.4 million hectares will satisfy such increase of grain consumption. Meanwhile, 11.66 million at most is equivalent to 5.7%~10.3% of the acreage sown to grain in 2014. If this increase all depends on import, national grain self-sufficiency ratio will hover around 80%, which means we’re at the edge of grain security.