Forecasting Of Call Arrivals Of Small And Medium Sized Customer Service Center Of Electronics Industry

A more accurate forecasting of call arrivals is the prerequisite for a telephone customer service center to optimize the allocation of human resources at the level of service provided. Due to the number of the interval call arrivals of small and medium sized customer service center of electronics industry is smaller, the interval arrivals are volatile in the influence of new arrivals, large-scale promotions and other emergencies. How to distingue effectively feature information of trends of sudden changes and how to establish forecasting models of interval call arrivals and to propose efficient algorithms, are important for management practices of small and medium sized telephone customer service center.Firstly, statistical analysis of historical call arrivals of small and medium sized telephone customer service center in electronic industry is performed in order to identify the characteristics of call interval arrivals and find the positional relationship between call interval arrivals and weekdays as well as call interval arrivals and intervals. On the basis, this paper presents a two-sector model to forecast the number of phone calls in a call center. The upper model is built to identify the characteristics of the spurt in phone calls based on both recent and historical data. Meanwhile the bottom model consists of several prediction models which apply to different characteristics of the data. At last, we test the model proposed by using the sets of real data which is collected from the customer service center of a real enterprise called ASUS and the experimental results show that the proposed model has good prediction performance. The paper provides practical guidance and reference for the forecasting of call arrivals for small and medium customer service center.