Study On Bidding Strategy Of Demand Side In Electricity Market With Time Series Analysis Approach

As with the developing of electricity power market, the optimal bidding strategy has been a hot topic for a long period. Electricity loads were treated as a generalized form in the recent studies. With the increasing diversity of electric devices, the improving of energy storage technique and electric vehicle technique, time-shiftable loads could help to increase the optimization of demand side bidding.This paper made a time series analysis of the electricity price of day-ahead market and real-time market based on ARIMA model. Autocorrelation function and partial correlation function was estimated to analysis the correlation of prices of the same time in different days and to build the ARIMA model of the price series. ARIMA model could take the advantage of the information contained in the history data in the price series, which supported the price forecasting in the optimal bidding model of time-shiftable loads.Optimal bidding strategy in the double-settlement market based on the time series short-term price forecasting was proposed in this paper. The goal of this strategy is to minimized the expect value of the procurement cost of time-shiftable loads, and short-term price forecasting based on ARIMA model was introduced to improve the existing model. Case studies showed that the improved model could save more procurement cost compared with the existing method.The limit of power usage at each time slot was handled by an adjusting algorithm proposed in this paper. The optimal bidding was calculated first without consideration of the power limit in order not to complex the optimization model, and greedy algorithm was taken to adjust the bidding in consideration of the power limit. The introduction of greedy algorithm make it possible to decouple the optimization model with some additional constraint, which could be referred by similar studies in the future.