Empirical Impact Of CPI On Real Estate Development And Investment

In the rapid development of China’s national economy by the transition to the new normal in the high-speed development, the Chinese real estate industry has gone from the "golden age" to change the "Silver Age". The implementation of macro-control policy from our government since, in all areas especially in the real estate market is gradually return to rational, but real estate investment overheating still exists, the local government to performance and GDP is often relaxed land conditions and restrictions, such as artificial adjustment of land planning conditions, reducing the reserve price of land to meet the needs of developers. Since the reform of the housing system, the rapid development of the real estate market, also contributed to the stable development of related industries and downstream industries. Faced with China’s economic development, "new normal," reasonable and appropriate real estate development and investment of stable and healthy development of national economy has important strategic significance. Real estate investment overheating phenomenon prevalent in various regions, not only with the development strategy on housing prices, and local government practices are closely related. According to the National Bureau of Statistics Web site and related investment theory, factors affecting the real estate development and investment for many reasons, such as the CPI index, interest rate and foreign direct investment, while the CPI index is the most important factor. In order to eliminate the phenomenon of overheated investment in the development of the real estate market, curb irrational investment behavior, regulate the real estate market, to ensure the healthy and orderly development of the real estate market, to provide reference for the development of national macroeconomic policies, we need to explore the CPI index of real estate development and investment the impact mechanism and quantitative relations.CPI index is mainly the extent of reaction of inflation. Domestic experts and scholars mostly with major real estate investment and GDP, gross national income of the total annual macroeconomic data do empirical research, and the controlled variable data and sample size too few, few studies between inflation and real estate investment However, CPI index and real estate development investment has close ties. Based on this consideration, we selected 2005--2014 years of monthly data, to study the relationship between the CPI and real estate development investment as a whole.Firstly, the article describes the real estate development and investment-related introduction and the theory of real estate development and investment concepts, characteristics, effects made a basic introduction and combing, reviewed the development process and the market situation development of real estate development and investment; Secondly, the theory of analysis of current development on the basis of the national real estate development and investment, by analyzing the relationship between real estate investment and CPI monthly data correlation analysis between the two, a negative correlation was found between the two; once again, on the basis of the analysis of the current situation, the establishment of empirical model validation Real estate development and investment relationship between the CPI and the introduction of foreign direct investment and the interest rate of these two control variables. The CPI index, foreign direct investment, the interest rate as the explanatory variables, real estate development and investment as being explanatory variables through cointegration test, unit root test, error correction model, Granger causality test, empirical analysis of the country on variables 2005--2014 years monthly time series in order to explore the relationship between the CPI and real estate investment. The study found that in the three explanatory variables, the effect on the CPI’s largest real estate investment, short-term impact is more pronounced than the long-term effects, and real estate development investment and CPI are bidirectional Granger causality. Finally, based on the results of empirical analysis, some suggestions for the real estate market regulation, to promote the healthy and orderly development of economy and society.