Integration Prediction Method Research Of Agricultural Products Market Price

At present, the factors that affect China’s agricultural products market price is very complex, including the production and circulation costs, market supply and demand, market policy guidance, changes in the international market, and various sudden natural disasters, etc. In these factors, under the joint action of the short-term volatility in the market price of agricultural products, increasing the frequency of the wave, the tendency of increase with the volatility. Agricultural market short-term risk, agricultural prices predict harder.Therefore, It is particularly important to carry out the agricultural products market price prediction research, to provide reference for agricultural market information.In order to improve the prediction accuracy of prices for agricultural products, and effectively explain price fluctuations inherent economic meaning, based on integrated prediction, the EMD-SVM integrated prediction model is put forward. In pork prices volatility larger representative data to predict samples, first using empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method to the pork market price break down into several different scales, relatively stable the intrinsic mode components (IMF), according to the frequency of each IMF component integration for the high frequency part, low frequency part and residual three modules, solve the problem of volatility and non-stationary. On the basis of using support vector machine (SVM) to forecast the three integration module respectively, so as to solve nonlinear problems. In order to make the optimal prediction model, the parameters of SVM by genetic algorithm optimization. The prediction results of three integration module again for integration, reconstruct the pork market price forecast. In order to verify the validity of the model, integrate the EMD-the SVM prediction model and SVM, the EMD-BP, BP prediction results are compared, and classification of the RMSE and MAPE and directivity are improved obviously.Finally, forecasting results, this paper expounds the agricultural prices forecast significance is in order to guide pricing, agricultural production, agricultural products market in a timely manner to establish the effective measures to prevent agricultural risks, including agricultural price volatility caused by the risk control in a reasonable level, safeguard social stability and harmony, and ensure the stable and sustainable development of national economy.