Study On The Operating Efficiency Of Power Grid Based On Electricity Sale, Electricity Price And Line Loss Forecasting

With the constant improvement of electric power production and consumption system, power grid enterprise operation benefit is more and more complicate and diverse affected by multiple factors Guaranteeing out country’s electricity transmission security is very important as well as comprehensively deepening enterprise operation management research and improving the level of management benefit risk control. Power grid enterprises most concern of three most sensitive factors of operation benefits, electricity sales, electricity price, and line loss.As a result, we need to study the three factors comprehensively, analyze the factors’ change trend, and explore its influence mechanism on enterprise operation benefit mechanism. All of above will provide theoretical basis for carrying out enterprise operation benefit management and strengthening operation risk prevention and control.Through studying the prediction theory at home and abroad, consulting literature and actually investigating, influence exerted by electricity sales, electricity price, and line loss on power grid enterprises is analyzed and summarized in this paper. Operation benefit management present situation of power grid enterprises is comprehensively analyzed through deeply researching. Find that their management just stays on the analysis of historical data, and con not forecast trend of the future benefits. And they lack means to manage company operating risk.Therefore, this paper constructed electricity power grid company benefit forecasting and analysis model based on the electricity sales forecasting, line loss forecasting and electricity price scenario analysis. Using support vector machine optimized quantum fireworks algorithm, GM(1,1) forecasting model, SVM, and neural network to construct a model of entropy weight combination forecast model. And is proposing a kind of SVM based on kernel principal component characteristics to forecast line loss. Selecting unit electric gross earnings, unit electricity sale net profit, operating income growth rate, cost-income ratio and unit assets electricity sale to describe the operation benefits.Finally, this paper introduces the forecast of power grid enterprise operation benefit analysis system based on the foregoing research.This paper forecasts key factors of power grid enterprise operation benefit, and evaluates power grid operation benefit according to the established operation benefit forecasting and analysis model. Especially the operation benefit forecast and analysis system, based on theoretical research, greatly improved work efficiency of data analysis personnel. Its index database realizes real-time updating and query of enterprise operating index. The implementation of the model base has the very good help for the company to carry out electricity sales forecasting, business expansion and user analysis.