| China has a vast national territorial area along with a large population, it’s social development process is relatively complicated. Since 1949, Chinese society has experienced the revolution of production relationship, and national economy level represents a high-speed development.Confined by the combined impact of the policy system, the basic national conditions and the law of economic development, China has formed a unique economic development model during the 60 years. In this paper, firstly, GDP growth rate over the year is obtained through the economic statistical data, secondly, the mutation years of the GDP growth rate are figured out by using Pettitt nonparametric test, and then different stages of economic development are divided by the calculated mutation years. Next, the paper analyzes the characteristics of each stage of economic development and discusses the causes of different stages. Global and Local Moran’s I Index are used to study the spatial correlation of GDP distribution, while hot spot analysis method is used to calculate the GDP distribution hotspots of each province over the years and following that step the migration process of the focus hotspots is explored. Through the data based on each prefecture-level city at the provincial level,the paper analyzes the effect on the law of GDP space distribution induced by scale size. By using the Space-time integrated analysis method, the development trend of the Chinese economy is studied, which can certainly provide the economic development policy formulation and implementation with necessary guidance. The whole research can mainly draw the following conclusions:1. In accordance with the non-parametric test of Pettitt, the Chinese mainland provinces GDP growth rate calculation can be drawn each time the provinces mutation remained at between 1975 to 1982, as a result of changes in GDP growth can be divided into three stages, the first stage is from 1952 to 1975, China’s economy is the foundation stage of development; the second stage is from 1975 to 1982, the Chinese mainland is a transitional stage of economic development; the third stage is 1982 So far, China’s period of rapid economic development.2. The distribution of Chinese mainland GDP by calculating the Moran’s I index, can be found distribution showed significant correlation over the years. From 1952 to 1990, Moran’s I> 0, at the P <0.05 level, z> 1.96, explained during this period, GDP in space exhibit Agglomeration and Agglomeration significantly. From 1991 to 2015, Moran’s I index is positive, but z <1.96, and p values changed much, does not meet the p < 0.05 level, indicating that after 1991, the Chinese mainland provinces GDP decreased in space, the dependence of the provincesis weaker,geographic distribution affect the ability of GDP smaller.3. Through the analysis of the hot spots, it is concluded that the GDP distribution hotspots of each province over the year are mainly concentrated in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu and other provinces, mainly distributed in north China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, cold spots are mainly in Tibet and Qinghai region. Other regions represent no obvious trends. And from 1952 to 2015, GDP distribution hot spots transfer from Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and so on to Anhui, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other provinces, generally showing the tendency of transfer from north to south. |
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