Time Series Analysis Method And Forecast Of LCD TV Sales In China

LCD TV is almost every necessary home appliances. Previously, the foreign branders such as Samsung, LGE from Korea and Sony, Panasonic from Japan occupied lot of China’s TV market. However, these days, China own brander such as Skyworth, TCL, Konka, ChangHong keep enlarging the market share not only in China, but also worldwide. The competition between each brander becomes more and more fierce, in this case, it is more and more important for the corporation to use scientific statistics method to analysis the sales quantity and make forecast.This paper study the sales quantity for major TV, such as High Resolution network TV, 3D TV, smart TV and 4K TV by using Excel and SPSS. While the paper use the data of 90-day sale quantity from one of the website, aimed to finding the rule of the sales quantity and make forecast and make test accordingly. This paper’s research content as follows:Firstly, this paper describes the basic knowledge for TFT-LCD TV and times series analysis; secondly, the paper makes periodic decomposition for the data collected and delete the seasonal factors, then make judgment for data of smoothness. Thirdly, this paper creates AMIMA model for the data and make estimate for the parameters and make forecast. Finally, the paper makes error comparison for the observed values and forecast values.The empirical study shows: different TV applies to different AMIMA models and these models are important for corporation to make decision for the coming sales.