The Influence Of China’s Credit Cycle On Economic Cycle Research

Since the outbreak of the subprime crisis of the United States in 2007 which led to the world financial crisis in the following year that triggered the high attention of the impact on credit and its regulation in the academic field.The formation of the credit cycle plays a key role in the progress of the formation of the economic cycle.In the previous literature about the formation of the credit cycle or the relationship between the credit cycle and the business cycle, scholars for the pro-cyclicality of the credit cycle has a universal point of view, but for the researches of the credit cycle phase countercyclically are short.In the light of this, this paper chooses Chinese credit balance and economic data as the research objects, and through the establishment of the model established obtains the empirical analysis conclusion that Chinese credit cycle exists the feature of phase countercyclically, and put forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions to reply to the impact of economic cycle of the credit cycle.In this paper, I use the method of combination of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis. According to the principle of the cycle division theory of Schumpeter, using the loan balance and GDP annual data and their annual growth rates, to divide Chinese credit cycle and business cycle theoretically after introducing the relevant theoretical basis first and then analysis the positive effect and the negative effect of the influence of the credit cycle impact on the business cycle through the former theoretical analysis.Second, using the loan and GDP quarterly datas from the third quarter of 1992 to the second quarter of 2015 to conduct the empirical study. Using B- N decomposition technique to decompose the loan balance quarterly datas,and using BP filtering technique to filter GDP quarterly datas.Getting their cycle components and to divide cycles empirically.And then using the matrix equation obtained by VEC model to map the diagram of the relationship between Chinese credit cycle business cycle.It shows not only is there the pro-cyclicality of the credit cycle, but also the feature of phase countercyclically.The last through the empirical results to conduct Granger causality test and IRF analysis to confirm significance of the impact, and to further observe the feature of phase countercyclically of the credit cycle and dynamic changes.In the last part of the article,making a conclusion of the empirical result at first.And then comparing the results of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis to obtain the further analysis of the results.In the end, according to the empirical final conclusion to our country the credit cycle of economic cycle fluctuation influence aspects put forward to some countermeasures and suggestions, monetary policy, the service efficiency of funds, the financing channels and countercyclical regulatory four aspects included.